Bonus Bar and Contenders - Summer - Week 2 - 2019

@guyett · Guyett
Jun 11, 2019, 4:35am PDT

Hey everyone, Guyett back with the Bonus Bar for week 2 of Summer 2019!

Bar is set to $75k

MEN IN BLACK INTERNATIONAL | $40.20m (New Release) | LRF is currently $39m, and has been consistent other than a brief stint at $41m. So far it seems 2019 has been the year of films coming in under their LRF's, unless they hail from the land of the Mouse. Given Dark Phoenix, Godzilla and Pikachu all faltering on their opening weekend you would expect that MiB would likely follow the same pattern. However, the known variable here is the extremely good comedic chemistry between Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson, which provides some comfort that MiB could do the business this weekend.

SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 | $26.40m (-43.41%) | A look through Illuminations back catalogue indicates that, for summer releases, this bar may be too high for SLOP2 to reach, other than the original Despicable Me. However should the two major new releases flop the Pets will almost certainly anchor your cinema.

SHAFT | $25.05m (New Release) | LRF is $23m, down from an initial $31m, and the LRF has been sliding week on week since Aladdins opening weekend. One major question mark over Shafts potential is who exactly is this film for? Given the team up of Jackson's Shaft with his son, as well as the original 70's era Shaft, there is strong chance of Shaft's 2019 outing getting a nice Father's Day bump. Sequels released long after the previous film have been hit and miss lately; For every The Force Awakens, Incredibles 2 and Mad Max Fury Road we have Dumb and Dumber to and Independence Day Resurgence.

ALADDIN | $20.33m (-17.65%) | Pricing have punished Aladdin for some extremely stellar holds after a genuinely impressive opening which has seen a 3 for 3 run out in the Perfect Cinema. 2014's Maleficent has been a reasonable comp for Prince Ali given the release date and week 3 animated sequel competition (SLOP2 and How To Train Your Dragon 2). Maleficent fell -30.2% on her 4th weekend.
Alice Through the Looking Glass fell -24.0% despite major volume loss but may have seen some drive in action from the release of Finding Dory (although Zootopia looks to have been the prefered Drive In pairing).

DARK PHOENIX | $15.38m (-53.17%) | DankP was even more front-loaded than Godzilla King of the Monsters was and it fell -67.7% last weekend, I'm expecting the last of the Fox-Men releases to have a similar result.

GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS | $10.73m (-30.58%) | Godzilla (2014) fell -61.2% in its third weekend, but that was off a Memorial Day weekend. The Saturday to Saturday drop was a more reasonable -55.4%. Fathers Day is this weekend so expect stronger than expected holds for any film that even resembles a Dad movie. Be careful using years with major openings (such as 2018's Incredibles 2 who's $182m opening ate into everything), and especially years where the major new release is a high grossing Dad film (2016's Central Intelligence springs to mind)

ROCKETMAN | $9.75m (-29.43%) | Expect strong holds from here on for Rocketman, as well as potential Fathers Day bump.

6 Replies

Add Reply