Pre-Pricing Predictions - Summer Week 2

@lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
Jun 10, 2019, 1:02pm PDT

Hey FML - here's this week's batch of pricing predictions. Going with an $85K bar for now:


Film / Price / Gross / % up/down from last week/LRF

  • Men in Black International / $501 / $42.6M / +9.2% from LRF of $39M
  • Secret Life of Pets 2 / $311 / $26.4M / -43.9%
  • Shaft / $304 / $25.8M / +12.3% from LRF of $23M
  • Aladdin / $186 / $15.8M / -35.5%
  • Dark Phoenix / $167 / $14.2M / -57%
  • Rocketman / $99 / $8.4M / -39.9%
  • Godzilla / $92 / $7.8M / -49.5%
  • Late Night / $90 / $7.7M / --
  • John Wick 3 / $59 / $5M / -32.2%
  • Ma / $50 / $4.3M / -45.5%
  • Avengers Endgame / $32 / $2.7M / -43.3%
  • Dead Don't Die / $30 / $2.6M / --
  • Detective Pikachu / $18 / $1.5M / -49%
  • Booksmart / $10 / $850K / -46.9%
  • A Dog's Journey / $8 / $680K / -51.4%


Couple of thoughts:

  • Two wide new releases next week - Men in Black International and Shaft. Late Night is also expanding to ~1,500 theaters and will likely make the slate. MIBI is probably review-proof to some degree but if reviews are truly atrocious, I expect it to fall below the LRF. The combination of Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson after their Ragnarok and Endgame fame is probably semi-valuable. This does feel like a franchise reboot/sequel that nobody asked for, so there's definitely a pretty meaningful chance this will underperform, but at the least, I think it can definitely outgross Dark Phoenix
  • Shaft is a sequel/reboot of the long-dormant Shaft franchise; the last installment back in 2000 opened to $29.6M, but this feels like a franchise that has long faded into obsolescence. The AA audience has definitely surprised in FML's history so I don't expect pricing to go under the LRF, but in a year that's seen a lot of properties severely disappoint at the box office, Shaft doesn't feel like the one to buck that trend
  • The original Secret Life of Pets fell 51.3% from an opening weekend more than 2x that of SLOP 2. Pets 2 will probably hold better since it didn't have a monster opening weekend and had a slightly larger Thur/OW mult, but given that there were early previews rolled into Sunday + lackluster WOM, it feels like SLOP 2 is on track for something closer to Hotel Transylvania 3 last summer, which dropped 46% in its second weekend.
  • Aladdin likely in for another fantastic hold, assuming it holds enough volume + a rebound from SLOP 2; Dark Phoenix in for a brutal drop off of its huge Thursday, crappy reviews, and competition from MIBI. Rocketman is probably in for a decent hold; it lost all of its Dolby Cinema PLF's last weekend, which probably contributed to a larger than expected drop. If it keeps enough volume, I think it's isolated enough from MIBI and Shaft's competitoin to leg out a decent hold
  • Late Night is expanding to ~1500 theaters and coming off of very strong reviews; The Big Sick expanded to 326 theaters and then 2,597 theaters, grossing $3.6M and then $7.6M. Since Late Night is skipping that intermediate expansion, feels like it's reasonable to price this for around a $7-8M opening. I honestly have no idea what to do with The Dead Don't Die, but looking at Jarmusch's history, this feels like an aggressively high price that's solely riding off of the blow-up potential of this niche audience
  • ADJ ran away with BP this week off the strength of drive-ins, but there's a very real chance it gets gutted next week if SLOP2 sacrifices most of its drive-ins. Last Black Man in SF looks like it's getting a slight expansion to 20ish theaters, but not sure if that's enough to crack the top 15 so I think pricing will stick with the safer choice of keeping ADJ in theaters.


Thoughts?

1 Reply

  • Reply #1

    My name is Peoples. You know why they call me that?


    ‘Cuz you's always takes care of you's peoples?

    @hmg · Hoosier Movie Guy
    Jun 10, 2019, 1:52pm PDT
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