Thursday Fandango Check - Spring Week 12

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
May 16, 2019, 9:40am PDTEdited

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…


http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes/


And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…


  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.


Bonus Bar will be set at $80k.


The Newbies



Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW


John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $525/show |DEBUT
A Dog's Journey | $270/show |DEBUT
The Sun Is Also a Star | $219/show |DEBUT


82k shows for John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is about 2k fewer than The Meg's OW. The Meg may seem like an odd comp, but it grossed $542/show its OW with a similar 60% market share of IMAX.
51k shows for A Dog's Journey is about 2k more than A Dog's Way Home and on par with A Dog's Purpose. Those two movies provide a nice range for ADJ, with Way Home on the low end at $230/show and Purpose on the high end at $359/show.
35k shows for The Sun Is Also a Star is about 4k more than After's OW, which grossed $194/show that weekend.


Holdover Tiers



Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.


None this week


Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.


Avengers: Endgame | $351/show |-31.4%
Pokemon Detective Pikachu | $329/show |-36.6%
The Hustle | $173/show |-38.0%
The Intruder (2019) | $172/show |-22.7%
Long Shot | $132/show |-12.9%
Poms | $94/show |-26.9%
Breakthrough | $136/show |-14.2%
The Curse of La Llorona | $154/show |-14.8%
Shazam! | $137/show |-8.0%


Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.


Tolkien | $109/show |10.0%


DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.


Uglydolls | $116/show |30.0%
Captain Marvel | $169/show |28.9%

6 Replies

  • Reply #1

    The BSA wholeheartedly supports a "DOA" proclamation on Uglydolls!


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    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    May 16, 2019, 10:39am PDT
  • Reply #2

    I do agree on the A Dog's Journey comp to A Dog's Journey

    @iggy · Iggman
    May 16, 2019, 11:13am PDT
  • Reply #3

    I do agree on the A Dog's Journey comp to A Dog's Journey


    I can keep these dumb dog movies straight about as well as you and Ingy. Either way, corrected.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    May 16, 2019, 12:20pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    I do agree on the A Dog's Journey comp to A Dog's Journey


    I can keep these dumb dog movies straight about as well as you and Ingy. Either way, corrected.


    I've never noticed Iggy or Ingy mixing up their dog movies before.


    100.webp

    @brandonj · Particular Set of Movie Skills
    May 16, 2019, 12:43pm PDT
  • Reply #5

    I've never noticed Iggy or Ingy mixing up their dog movies before.


    How about you don't mix up which door hits you in the ass on the way out of Skynet?!

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    May 16, 2019, 12:53pm PDT
  • Reply #6

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    @brandonj · Particular Set of Movie Skills
    May 16, 2019, 1:12pm PDT
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