Pre-Pricing Predictions - Spring Week 8

@lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
Apr 15, 2019, 3:58pm PDT

Hey FML! Sorry for the late post - but here's this week's pricing predictions! Going with a $75K bar for now:

Film / Price / Gross / % up/down from last week/LRF

  • The Curse of La Llorona / $309 / $23.2M / +22% from LRF of $19M
  • Breakthrough / $236 / $17.7M / +36.2% from LRF of $13M
  • Shazam / $186 / $14M / -43%
  • Little / $126 / $9.5M / 38.6%
  • Captain Marvel / $76 / $5.7M / -33.8%
  • Dumbo / $75 / $5.6M / -40.2%
  • Hellboy / $73 / $5.5M / -54.5%
  • Pet Sematary / $71 / $5.3M / -45.4%
  • Penguins / $66 / $5M / +16.5% from LRF of $4.25M
  • Missing Link / $52 / $3.9M / -34.4%
  • Us / $50 / $3.8M / -44.9%
  • After / $40 / $3M / 50%
  • Kalank / $31 / $2.3M / --
  • Best of Enemies / $15 / $1.1M / -44.1%
  • Unplanned / $14 / $1.1M / -40.5%

Couple of thoughts:

  • Breakthrough and Penguins come out Wednesday of this week so I suspect pricing will want to go aggressively on both of them to avoid a potential breakout/consensus week. Breakthrough in particular has a suspiciously low LRF while also looking like a potential ICOI/Wonder-type of film that appeals to a hidden audience - expect this one to get (seemingly) egregiously overpriced
  • The Curse of La Llorona, the latest pseudo-entry in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, comes to use this Friday with a declining LRF and likely awful reviews. This film has gone through a lot of production hell and seems like it should be poised to fall flat, but never underestimate horror. Also sounds like it is getting some PLF's, which will help it. This weekend is basically its only chance to make money before getting slayed by the Avengers next week
  • Shazam and Little poised as your anchors of choice in the somewhat likely event that both Llorona and Breakthrough come in lower than expected; Shazam had a reasonably strong hold for a Week 2 superhero film and strong word of mouth should help it get at least one more solid week before we enter the Endgame era
  • Captain Marvel, Dumbo, Hellboy, and Sematary will all be duking it out for the #5 spot next weekend - if Marvel squeezes out another phenomenal hold, it should be in contention. If Dumbo ekes out a reasonable hold and proves it's not being completely rejected by the market, it has some potential as well. Pet Sematary needs to fend off Llorona to contend and Hellboy needs to not completely fall off of a cliff. Craft your narratives accordingly, folks
  • Penguins is the latest release from DisneyNature - looks like reviews are pretty solid so far, and the Wednesday release will help us determine how much of a chance this one has. Earth did $8.8M back in 2009, Oceans did $6M in 2010, Bears did $4.8M in 2014 and Born in China did $4.8M in 2017 - the trend is definitely declining, but feels like expecting $5M from Penguins isn't out of question here. It is splitting PLF's with La Llorona so volume will be a consideration, but I'd expect Penguins to post some reasonable numbers this week. How much of that demand gets burnt off on Wed/Thur is up for debate.
  • Also adding in Kalank, a big budget Hindi film poised to come out this weekend. A lot of buzz in the Bollywood community for this film with a lot of big-name stars, this market has been relatively starved for a while. Don't think it's going to post crazy numbers like Padmaavat ($4.5M opening) but this one feels like it should be good for a few million

Any thoughts?

2 Replies

  • Reply #1

    @lalalightI saw amazing grace wasn't on the list? Did you leave the off or am I just impersonating Mister Magoo over here?


    @zman2018 · Bubba Ho Tep's Cineplex!
    Apr 15, 2019, 7:00pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    Yup I missed that one! Didn't spot a definitive TC when I was researching so I didn't feel confident in pricing it rather than BOE - but pricing is much more on top of it than I am, so they probably had some good intel on Grace

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Apr 15, 2019, 7:10pm PDT
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