Thursday Fandango Check - Spring Week 7

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Apr 11, 2019, 9:41am PDT

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.

Bonus Bar will be set at $85k.

The Newbies

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW

Little | $434/show |DEBUT
Hellboy (2019) | $320/show |DEBUT
Missing Link | $237/show |DEBUT
After (2019) | $261/show |DEBUT

  • 45k shows for Little is about 1k below Nobody's Fool and 2k below Girls Trip on their OW's. NF grossed $296/show; GT grossed $653/show.
  • 60k shows for Hellboy (2019) is about what Resident Evil: The Final Chapter opened with. RE grossed $227/show.
  • 56k shows for Missing Link is about 3k ahead of Early Man's Feb 2018 OW. EM grossed $81/show. It's also 3k behind Laika's last offering, Kubo & The Two Strings, which debuted with $217/show.
  • 29k shows for After (2019) is about 5k behind last year's Midnight Sun, which grossed $119/show.

Holdover Tiers

Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.

None this week

Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.

Shazam! | $368/show |-31.0%
Pet Sematary (2019) | $209/show |-33.2%
The Best of Enemies | $147/show |-24.3%
Unplanned | $141/show |-15.8%

Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.

Dumbo (2019) | $209/show |-4.3%
Us | $213/show |-7.7%

DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.

Captain Marvel | $270/show |10.4%
Five Feet Apart | $186/show |29.5%
Hotel Mumbai | $208/show |35.3%
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | $161/show |36.6%
Wonder Park | $138/show |29.4%

4 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Yikes that's DOA tier

    @furiosa · Furiosa
    Apr 11, 2019, 7:50pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    Yikes that's DOA tier

    Indeed. I do think it is important here to note that some are in that tier due to volume loss, others simply due to pricing.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Apr 11, 2019, 11:15pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    HAHAHAHA Missing LInk with all those 3D showings. It is fun seeing a movie in an empty theater

    @william_fn_wallace · The Governo[R]
    Apr 12, 2019, 5:27am PDT
  • Reply #4

    It feels like the mid teir group and bottom feeders are like going through a junkyard this week trying to find that special piece of memoriablia that you can take to Garage Wars and make a killing on. There's no weight in any one of these mid teir plays or bottom plays this week. All the money and mojo is right at the anchor plays...

    It's garbage stew this week on the fillers. I like After, but as much I'm attempting to argue the play, I can't argue against any filler plays this week.

    What do you all say about filler plays this week?


    @zman2018 · Bubba Ho Tep's Cineplex!
    Apr 12, 2019, 5:44am PDT
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