Bonus Bar and Contenders - Spring - Week 7

@20thcentury_flops · 20th Century Flops
Apr 9, 2019, 4:36pm PDTEdited

Greetings FML. I'm filling in this week for Guyett who's on week 2 of his Greek vacation.


Bonus bar set to $80K


BP Contenders


Little | $18.4M (New release): LRF at $15M. Comedies targeting African American audiences have fared well in 2019, and Little hopes to be the next one to do so. Madea, What Men Want, and Upside all made over $18M on OW this year, and that probably has to be the line to beat here. Regina Hall (Girls Trip) might not be a household name just yet, so Little faces an uphill battle. The market is a bit tapped out at the moment with Madea hanging around longer than expected.


Missing Link | $12M (New release): Largest opening for Laika animation is $17.2M, and their most recent film (Kubo & the 2 Strings) managed $12.6M. With Dumbo underperforming and HTTYD3 and Wonder Park on their way out, Missing Link will hope to pick up whatever scraps are left over in the kids market. Pricing has given Link a path here, given the $11M LRF. Question is will it take advantage?


After | $7.12M (New release): LRF is only $3.9M, and it's only in 2,000 theaters, but don't sleep on this contender! Early presales are hot, and it's clear this is less "Midnight Sun" and more "50 Shades of Grey for teens", so you'll be wise to choose your comps with caution. This Cosmo article is pretty entertaining and tells you everything you need to know about this hormone-injected young adult drama: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/movies/a26450181/after-movie-anna-todd-harry-styles-fanfiction/. The key point is this movie is based on a Harry Styles fan fiction(!) that has half a billion reads(!!). This movie is brought to us by Aviron (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=aviron.htm), which has given us such gems as Kidnap and Strangers: Prey at Night, but also bombs like Serenity.


The Best of Enemies | $2.64M (-40.6%): Got an A Cinemascore, and did well with females over 35. That figures to be its demo moving forward, so plan your dailies with that in mind, and make sure showtimes are okay heading into the weekend.


Risk/Reward


Hellboy | $18.25M (New release): Has a declining LRF of $17M, and could possibly see it go lower. Expectations are lower for this reboot without Guillermo del Toro at the helm. Stranger Things' David Harbour replacing Ron Perlman as the lead probably doesn't help much either. Does the R rating help or hurt? Worth noting that GDT was also not involved in last year's Pacific Rim sequel, and it didn't perform as well as the original. One other red flag - being stuck between Shazam! and Endgame is really concerning. That said, it seems crazy that a well known comic book property might not break $20M, and indeed the original Hellboys made over $23M. This is a risky play for sure, if you like living dangerously.


Upper Mid Tier


Captain Marvel | $10.16M (-18.3%): Held like a champ in the face of direct competition last weekend. Clearly there's a motive for moviegoers to see this before Avengers Endgame, and that is likely to continue until the much anticipated premiere. Black Panther saw good holds in the weeks before Infinity War (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=marvel2017b.htm), and that trend figures to continue for CM. It needs a crazy low 20% hold this weekend, but a double rebound from Shazam and Dumbo in addition to sustained Endgame motivation could indicate that is possible.


Dumbo | $10.64M (-41.6%): It lost PLFs last weekend, and got shafted by competition from Shazam. That won't happen this weekend, so it's an obvious rebound candidate. Counterpoint: People don't care about Dumbo.


Shazam! | $26.72M (-50%): All things considered, it had a great opening weekend. Solid Saturday and Sunday results portend good things to come. Most superhero fare drops over 55% in week 2, and if Shazam can accomplish that, it's likely a top holdover value.


Pet Sematary | $12M (-51%): Opening weekend was disappointing, but the 10.65x Thursday-to-OW multiple is pretty decent for R-rated horror these days. Probably a natural instinct to look at IT's impressive 51% week 2 hold, but that feels like an anomaly unlikely to repeat itself. Keep in mind the R rating, which did no favors for Us a couple weekends ago.

13 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Mid Tier


    Us | $9.36M (-32.2%): Didn't get a "week 3 horror rebound" that we've seen with other R-rated horror. But it faced tough competition from Pet Sematary, so now we look for a rebound from that. On the other hand, bigger TC cuts loom this weekend.


    5 Feet Apart | $2.08M (-41.9%): It has posted great holds throughout its run, and will be a top value if it can repeat another performance like those. Low PTA indicates a bigger TC drop is in store, and the Harry Styles movie could be a more enticing choice for teens this weekend.


    Worst Performer:


    Unplanned | $1.84M (-43.9%): Terrible performance last weekend when it expanded, revealing it didn't have any juice outside of its opening weekend. Don't think any more expansions are in store, and a big drop seems likely.


    Hotel Mumbai | $1.2M (-32.6%): Ran out of steam last weekend without an expansion, and will likely lose theaters this weekend.


    How to Train Your Dragon 3 | $1.12M (-43.8%): Dangerously low PTA, and with 4 new releases coming in (including a children's animation), this figures to get gutted.


    Wonder Park | $1.12M (-48%): See Dragon.

    @20thcentury_flops · 20th Century Flops
    Apr 9, 2019, 4:37pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    The GOAT is here to drop knowledge!


    xFrJtHx.gif

    @protagonist · The Force A-Nathan-s
    Apr 9, 2019, 4:48pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    That's some grade A info

    @william_fn_wallace · The Governo[R]
    Apr 9, 2019, 4:55pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    @protagonist The GOAT is here to drop knowledge!

    xFrJtHx.gif


    What he said!

    @garbs · The Garbera Redemption (KotRT)
    Apr 9, 2019, 4:56pm PDT
  • Reply #5

    This article might get me a coveted PC this week. Not going to give away my lineup however let's just say it will have After in it. Had no freggin idea the hype and power of After until I read this news. Amazing post!


    image

    @zman2018 · Bubba Ho Tep's Cineplex!
    Apr 9, 2019, 5:04pm PDT
  • Reply #6

    Thanks for sharing your wisdom, Flops!

    @jakthird · jakthird (R)
    Apr 9, 2019, 7:09pm PDT
  • Reply #7

    You guys are embarrassing me, lol. Trust me, you're not getting anything that you don't usually get here. It just takes me longer to do it. Much praise to Guyett, Nathan, and CCR who have invested a lot more time and effort to bring this column to you every week than I ever could.


    tenor.gif

    @20thcentury_flops · 20th Century Flops
    Apr 9, 2019, 8:13pm PDT
  • Reply #8

    Hell, I didn't even know you could type.

    @faster · Faster (R)
    Apr 9, 2019, 9:23pm PDT
  • Reply #9

    Hell, I didn't even know you could type.


    Even the GOAT posts every now and then.


    7HFleoY.jpg

    @omalpha · I Am The Omalpha
    Apr 10, 2019, 8:02am PDT
  • Reply #10

    It's a great write up and needs to be on the first page for the next 18 hours.

    @kevin · Satellite of Love (SOL) (R)
    Apr 11, 2019, 5:32pm PDT
Add Reply