Weekly Comps with Waco and Nux

@waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
Mar 21, 2019, 7:58pm PDT

Hello all and welcome back for another dose of Weekly Comps with @waco_kid and @nux!
For those that are new, this thread is meant to help you find films that can assist in determining how a movie will perform each week.
We start with feel comps for the New Releases and those in their second week, then @nuxdistance applies his methodology to find additional comps for the 2nd week and older holdovers.
So lets see what we have this week:


Newcomers


Us


Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date
The Nun | 53,807,379 | 3,876 | 13,882 | 117,450,119 | 9/7/2018
Halloween | 76,221,545 | 3,928 | 19,405 | 159,342,015 | 10/19/2018
IT | 123,403,419 | 4,103 | 30,076 | 327,481,748 | 9/8/2017


Keys to Comps: Straight up Rated R Horror. You may be thinking, why not Get Out or A Quiet Place. Well that is because Us has already exceeded those movie's presales and has just passed The Nun. Us is opening in 3700+ theaters, a little less than The Nun, but with the presales, we can expect the PTA to be closer to that of Halloween. Halloween was the most recent "Event" horror film and exceeded expectations. If Us comes in at a similar PTA, it will eclipse $70M. Now the last comp is IT. This would be the gangbusters scenario. The problem is that the TC for IT was much greater AND Us does not have 25+ years of anticipation behind it.


Gloria Bell Expansion Week


Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date
Good Time 3rd Weekend | 581,404 | 721 | 806 | 2,026,499 | 8/11/2017
20th Century Women 4th Weekend | 1,385,336 | 650 | 2,131 | 5,664,764 | 12/28/2016


Keys to Comps: A24 movies with a similar release pattern. Although Gloria Bell has a bit more acclaim to it. Should perform better in its expansion this week. Other than that, it should do okay and in some instances my fill a PC.


Holdovers in Second Week


Five Feet Apart


Movie | BO | Theaters | BO% Change | TC Change | PTA
Everything, Everything | 6,015,836 | 2,801 | -48.7% | NULL | 2,148

Love,Simon | 7,607,451 | 2,434 | -35.3% | +1.33% | 3,125


Keys to Comps: Young adult films that held decently in the second week. For Five Feet Apart, we should look to a PTA between 2100 and 3100. Five Feet Apart is doing a similar expansion to Love Simon. So we could expect it to perform closer to Love, Simon than Everything Everything this week.


Wonder Park


Movie | BO | Theaters | BO% Change | TC Change | PTA
Sherlock Gnomes | 7,001,570 | 3,662 | -34.0% | NULL | 1,912
Smallfoot | 14,402,559 | 4,131 | -37.5% | NULL | 3,486


Keys to Comps: Wonder Park shocked us all last week and was the runaway BP. This week, expect it to perform similarly to these comps. Expect it to drop 35-38% in week 2.


No Manches Frida 2


Movie | BO | Theaters | BO% Change | TC Change | PTA
No Manches Frida | 2,113,497 | 465 | -42.5% | +28.45% | 4,545


Keys to Comps: In the originals second week, Frida gained almost 30% in its theaters and came off a holiday weekend. Both of those scenarios are different for Frida 2. It didn't lose theaters, but could benefit from opening in new markets. This will lead to a 45-50% drop this weekend.


Captive State


Movie | BO | Theaters | BO% Change | TC Change | PTA
Replicas | 439,371 | 2,059 | -81.5% | -11.59% | 213
Kin | 804,401 | 2141 | -73.5% | NULL | 376


Keys to Comps: Sci-Fi niche film. Luckily Captive State is not following suit with these films this week. It is not losing theaters, therefore should not fall off the same cliff as these films. It should still lose a fair amount of viewers due to Us. Expect a drop anywhere from 40-60%.

5 Replies

  • Reply #1

    CAPTAIN MARVEL
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Captain America: Civil War | -54.6% | -54.6%
    Frozen | -53.0% | -53.0%
    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | -52.7% | -54.4%
    Doctor Strange | -56.5% | -58.6%
    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom | -51.5% | -52.9%
    Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them | -58.2% | -59.8%
    Pitch Perfect 2 | -53.2% | -51.8%
    Monsters University | -53.7% | -56.7%
    Justice League | -57.0% | -59.4%
    Sing | -50.8% | -51.7%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $30.91M | -54.1% | $77,474/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $30.51M | -55.1% | $76,476/Bux


    Lots of these comps makes sense, but I'm particularly drawn to Doctor Strange. This, combined with "Us" trending upwards, doesn't bode well for Veers and co.



    HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Aquaman | -34.8% | -41.3%
    Bumblebee | -19.6% | -34.0%
    A Quiet Place | -26.3% | -29.4%
    Daddy's Home | -38.3% | -48.2%
    Wonder | -28.5% | -38.1%
    Hotel Transylvania 2 | -21.3% | -29.7%
    Girls Trip | -30.6% | -39.5%
    The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies | -19.8% | -47.6%
    The LEGO Movie | -39.9% | -47.6%
    The LEGO Batman Movie | -27.9% | -34.9%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $5.93M | -28.7% | $80,194/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $5.66M | -38.9% | $76,547/Bux


    Lots of these comps are at different times of year, so be careful here. I still think this says HTTYD will be pretty good filler this week.



    TYLER PERRY'S A MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Cinderella | -33.0% | -40.2%
    Mama | -33.3% | -35.8%
    Daddy's Home | -33.3% | -36.4%
    Straight Outta Compton | -33.1% | -34.1%
    The Monuments Men | -36.2% | -37.5%
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | -31.4% | -36.8%
    Justice League | -36.8% | -41.9%
    Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them | -36.7% | -42.4%
    The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | -30.7% | -34.7%
    Suicide Squad | -35.6% | -41.2%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $4.82M | -33.9% | $96,357/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $4.86M | -38.0% | $97,132/Bux


    Nuxdistance likes Madea as a BP contender. There is probably some demographic crossover with "Us" this week, but I'm less convinced that it'll have a significant effect. Beware of this one...I think it could sneak up on us.



    THE LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra | -12.6% | -43.8%
    Oz The Great and Powerful | -24.3% | -38.1%
    The LEGO Batman Movie | -23.7% | -54.3%
    Insidious Chapter 2 | -20.3% | -41.3%
    The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | -20.0% | -40.4%
    Kong: Skull Island | -7.53% | -44.9%
    Cinderella | -17.8% | -31.2%
    Let's Be Cops | -15.5% | -43.9%
    Bumblebee | -23.7% | -35.5%
    The Fate of the Furious | -22.3% | -53.8%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $1.18M | -18.8% | $78,992/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.23M | -42.8% | $81,983/Bux


    Look to LEGO Batman. I'm not particularly thrilled by LEGO this week.

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Mar 21, 2019, 8:05pm PDTEdited
  • Reply #2

    ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra | -36.2% | -52.5%
    The LEGO Ninjago Movie | -18.3% | -42.7%
    The Boss | -10.3% | -37.4%
    The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | -15.6% | -41.0%
    Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again | -14.3% | -41.2%
    Solo: A Star Wars Story | -15.7% | -40.3%
    The Equalizer 2 | -29.9% | -29.0%
    War for the Planet of the Apes | -27.1% | -44.1%
    Girls Trip | -31.7% | -39.6%
    Kingsman: The Golden Circle | -16.0% | -46.0%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $1.25M | -22.2% | $96,359/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.1M | -42.0% | $84,722/Bux


    I'm a bit surprised by these results. The model seemingly really likes Alita. I'm looking into GI Joe as a comp over things like The Boss or Solo, so I'm tempering my expectation some.



    APOLLO 11
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    The Front Runner | -56.7% | -56.7%
    Green Room | -63.5% | -63.5%
    An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power | -56.1% | -59.4%
    RBG | -7.07% | 2.833%
    Hello, My Name is Doris | -28.2% | 42.37%
    Enough Said | -37.1% | -12.8%
    Mud | -21.9% | -12.0%
    The Lost City of Z | -39.0% | -42.6%
    The Beguiled | -42.1% | -55.3%
    Snowpiercer | 20.16% | -28.7%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $0.67M | -42.5% | $51,165/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $0.72M | -38.3% | $55,135/Bux


    Good to see some docs in here. Not liking the results. Apollo seems to be a movie we can forget about, if the model has anything to say about it.



    GREEN BOOK
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    A Star is Born | 27.74% | -38.8%
    Lady Bird | 39.12% | -69.4%
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | -24.8% | -61.5%
    Argo | 43.01% | -8.12%
    Frozen | 26.56% | -54.0%
    Silver Linings Playbook | -3.68% | -37.2%
    Spotlight | -23.6% | -47.2%
    Bohemian Rhapsody | -14.5% | -60.6%
    Gravity | 33.53% | -17.3%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $0.91M | 13.08% | $129,616/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $0.68M | -45.9% | $97,242/Bux


    I mentioned before that Green Book broke the model by being so late in the model. I'm not believing these results in earnest, but I do believe that Green Book will outpace "Isn't It Romantic" to win the $7 battle.



    ISN'T IT ROMANTIC
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    The House with a Clock in Its Walls | -11.6% | -42.0%
    McFarland, USA | -17.5% | -48.9%
    The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | -15.6% | -41.0%
    The Shack | -30.9% | -46.5%
    My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 | -15.3% | -47.0%
    The Equalizer | -5.18% | -35.7%
    The Visit | -24.3% | -54.0%
    Pitch Perfect 3 | -22.8% | -54.7%
    The Divergent Series: Allegiant | -19.2% | -53.6%
    When the Game Stands Tall | 3.616% | -51.6%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $0.68M | -15.9% | $97,648/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $0.64M | -47.2% | $91,164/Bux


    Good looks here from the model as well. I gotta admit that I don't buy it. "Green Book" also being $7 kind of renders this point moot anyway.

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Mar 21, 2019, 8:38pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    Here is my model's normalized values. To get these values, I normalized the values with the highest value equal to the bonus bar that I set. This week its 90k. Every value in the table below is based on the Nuxdistance % of that bonus bar as it compares to the highest value movie. BOLD denotes my BP.


    Movie | Value (PTA) | Value (BO Drop)


    Captain Marvel | 53.8k | 70.8k
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | 55.7k | 70.8k
    Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral | 66.9k | 89.9k
    The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | 54.8k | 75.9k
    Alita: Battle Angel | 66.9k | 78.4k
    Apollo 11 | 35.5k | 51k
    Green Book | 90k | 90k
    Isn't it Romantic | 67.8k | 84.4k

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Mar 21, 2019, 8:38pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    Friday morning bump.

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Mar 22, 2019, 6:49am PDT
  • Reply #5

    It is (perhaps not that much) surprising how in agreement my method tends to be with your results.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Mar 22, 2019, 8:13am PDT
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