Thursday Fandango Check - Spring Week 4

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Mar 21, 2019, 5:46pm PDTEdited

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…


http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes/


And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…


  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.


Bonus Bar will be set at $90.0k.


The Newbies



Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW


Us | $567/show |DEBUT
Gloria Bell | $219/show |DEBUT
Cruel Intentions (20th Anniversary) | $135/show |DEBUT
Apollo 11 | $190/show |DEBUT


  • 109k shows for Us is about 3k fewer than Halloween, which grossed $678/show. For a stupid high mark, Logan had about the same number of shows and grossed an astounding $802/show
  • 11k shows for Gloria Bell is about 3k ahead of Colette's expansion weekend. Colette grossed $112/show.
  • 11k shows for Cruel Intentions (20th Anniversary) is about where the 25th anniversary Schindler's List landed when it grossed $55/show.
  • 6k shows for Apollo 11 is about what Three Identical Strangers had the weekend of 7/27 when it grossed $215/show.

Holdover Tiers



Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.


Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral | $153/show |-34.2%
Isn't It Romantic | $85/show |-16.2%


Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.


Captain Marvel | $345/show |-26.4%
Wonder Park | $201/show |-13.9%
Five Feet Apart | $225/show |-30.7%
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | $154/show |-11.3%
No Manches Frida 2 | $331/show |-38.1%
Green Book | $100/show |-10.4%


Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.


Captive State | $65/show |-22.3%
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | $117/show |4.3%
Alita: Battle Angel | $122/show |1.3%


DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.


None this week

8 Replies

  • Reply #1

    I feel you. Basketball had taken over my day. Damned Maryland and Auburn, but I digress.

    @jeremy · Circle of Life (IOU)
    Mar 21, 2019, 5:56pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    Cheers Phil! Sorry about Louisville....

    @jakthird · jakthird (R)
    Mar 21, 2019, 6:02pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    giphy.gif

    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif?
    Mar 21, 2019, 7:28pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    Bump


    I feel you. Basketball had taken over my day. Damned Maryland and Auburn, but I digress.


    Yeah it was that plus a wicked cold.


    Cheers Phil! Sorry about Louisville....


    Least it's out of the way early. Also, how does Yale pick yesterday to shoot like Minnesota and vice versa?!

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Mar 22, 2019, 5:52am PDT
  • Reply #5

    So you are saying the best chance for BP is either Madea or IIR?

    @animatedmadness · CineMadness
    Mar 22, 2019, 5:56am PDT
  • Reply #6

    So you are saying the best chance for BP is either Madea or IIR?


    No. I'm saying you may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Mar 22, 2019, 6:03am PDT
  • Reply #7


    Cheers Phil! Sorry about Louisville....


    Least it's out of the way early. Also, how does Yale pick yesterday to shoot like Minnesota and vice versa?!


    LSU was begging to get beaten yesterday (maybe coaching does matter?), but Yale having a stretch where they went 1-23 from 3 saved them.


    SEC is playing a game of "hold my beer" with second half struggles: LSU, then Auburn, even Florida tried to give back the game.

    @mem · BigMem
    Mar 22, 2019, 6:36am PDT
  • Reply #8

    Great stuff as always @phils_phun_phlicks !

    @hmg · Hoosier Movie Guy
    Mar 22, 2019, 8:47am PDT
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