Bonus Bar and Contenders - Spring - Week 4 - 2019

@guyett · Guyett
Mar 19, 2019, 10:35am PDTEdited

Hey everyone, Guyett here with Spring Week 4's Bonus Bar..


Bonus Bar is set at $90k



US | $62.01m (New Release) | Long Range Forecast is currently $48m, that… seems low. Tickets sales are looking very very strong on AKValley's Fandango Tracker, FML have taken this into account and priced it really really high. Have fun with this one.



CAPTAIN MARVEL | $35.91m (-47.18%) | FML have priced Captain Marvel with strong "I Dare You" pricing to counter Us potentially breaking out. The last 5 MCU films dropped this much in week 3:
Antman & Wasp: -43.3%
Infinty War: -45.9%
Black Panther: -40.6%
Thor Ragnarok: -62.0% (against Justice League)
Spider Man: Homecoming: -49.9%
GotG vol 2: -46.9%


Its also worth pointing out that last Thursday, and Friday to an extent, saw an increase from the Averngers Endgame trailer drop. This inflated last weekend (ever so slightly, but when we're talking about a approx 70m weekend a slight increase does look pretty big) meaning this bar is actually lower than it looks.



WONDER PARK | $12.06m (-23.93%) | Below is a list of Animated films since the start of 2018, that opened to over $10m, that dropped better than -25% in week 2:









FIVE FEET APART | $8.28m (-37.23%) | using Love, Simon as a comp gets 5FA to the bar, it dropped -35.3% in the face of Pacific Rim Uprising.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=untitledgregberlantifilm.htm
R-rated horror release Us is not really going to impact this teen romance film at all.


HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 3 | $6.66m (-28.21%) | After Captain Marvel removing the bulk of Dragon's PLF screens, and Wonder Park's better than expected opening weekend, HTTYD3 is primed for a rebound. Volume should be safe here, unlike some of the bottom candidates.



TYLER PERRY'S A MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL | $4.50m (-42.57%) | This particular Madea is a beast of its own. The previous three holiday releases enjoyed their time in the sun and shrivelled away quickly, and the older films are, well, too old. Madea held volume last week and with a strong Per Theatre Average (PTA) she should retain the volume this week. Jordan Peele's second outing should snip into the target demographic though.



GLORIA BELL | $2.43m (+566.64%) | Strong PTA hold in its second weekend gives hope for a solid weekend. However this bar is likely out of reach unless it goes considerably wider than I expect. Here are some recent A24 films to compare for week 3 expansion, rule out some when we get more theatre info:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=ladybird.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=moonlight2016.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=room2015.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=eighthgrade.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=whilewereyoung.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=spectacularnow.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=20thcenturywomen.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=greenroom.htm

24 Replies

  • Reply #1

    NO MANCHES FRIDA 2 | $2.25m (-41.27%) | The original No Manches Frida dropped an impressive -42.5% off a Labour Day weekend, albeit with a sizeable expansion.
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=nomanchesfrida.htm
    Whether this R rated sequel can replicate that hold is another question entirely.



    CAPTIVE STATE | $1.44m (54.02%) | Sci-Fi thriller Upgrade managed a -49% in its second outing, a similar performance would have Captive State firmly in the running. However should it replicate Replica's sophomore outing expect bad things.
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=upgrade.htm
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=replicas.htm




    CRUEL INTENTIONS | $1.44m (New Release) |

    Please don't add Cruel Intentions. SL was a 1993 film that made 96mil in 1993 dollars and won numerous Oscars and was Best Picture. The re-release made 566k. CI is a crappy Dangerous Liasions remake that made 38mil in 1999 dollars. Are we really expecting it to break out? I'm not.
    (Biff)


    Schindler's List was also 3 hours and some people may not have wanted to sit through it again. I don't think anyone is expecting it to breakout but could be fun to add for bottom filler.
    (Mikescott85)


    Build your own narrative here.



    LEGO MOVIE 2 | $1.35m (-37.23%) | Lego Movie should see a rebound after Wonder Park took a massive swing at it, but with such a poor PTA $1,051 in over 2000 theatres I'd be expecting a rather large TC gutting.



    ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL | $1.17m (-38.43%) | Alita had a reasonably good rebound from Captain Marvel last week and didn't really take a hit from WP at all. As with Lego 2 though, TC cut's are coming. She may hit the $400m World Wide mark by the end of the weekend too.



    APOLLO 11 | $1.17m (+0.67%) | Expect another minor expansion from NEON's latest documentary, but this bar is likely out of reach.



    GREEN BOOK | $0.63m (-49.95%) | You're playing with fire with a film priced below 8 bux. Expect large volume cuts but with a film priced this low the smallest variation in numbers is multiplied out much higher than with the higher priced films.



    ISN'T IT ROMANTIC | $0.63m (-47.95%) | See Green Book

    @guyett · Guyett
    Mar 19, 2019, 10:35am PDTEdited
  • Reply #2
    @lurker · Still Showing The End of Evangelion
    Mar 19, 2019, 1:44pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    Excellent write up, thank you for your weekly efforts.

    @b_rad · Bradimus Prime
    Mar 19, 2019, 4:28pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    58% of FML is currently going with Wonder Park... I think I can predict the BSA pretty easily.

    @14percent · 14% On Rotten Tomatoes
    Mar 19, 2019, 4:50pm PDT
  • Reply #5

    Excellent write up, thank you for your weekly efforts.


    ^^^This, G!

    @faster · Faster (R)
    Mar 19, 2019, 9:04pm PDT
  • Reply #6

    @guyett what are you basing your statement on that the Endgame trailer had an increase on Captain Marvel?

    @jakthird · jakthird (R)
    Mar 20, 2019, 4:57am PDT
  • Reply #7

    @guyett what are you basing your statement on that the Endgame trailer had an increase on Captain Marvel?


    The trailer dropped on the Wednesday, Thursday showed a marked increase:
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2018a.htm
    especially as pretty much everything else dropped:
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2019-03-14&p=.htm


    This reminded me of something from late 2017:


    trailer dropped November 29th
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2017.htm



    I don't think this applies across the board but I have seen MCU films get a bump with trailer drops for upcoming larger MCU releases.

    @guyett · Guyett
    Mar 20, 2019, 5:38am PDT
  • Reply #8

    @guyett @guyett what are you basing your statement on that the Endgame trailer had an increase on Captain Marvel?

    The trailer dropped on the Wednesday, Thursday showed a marked increase:https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2018a.htmespecially as pretty much everything else dropped:https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2019-03-14&p=.htm

    This reminded me of something from late 2017:

    trailer dropped November 29thhttps://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2017.htm

    I don't think this applies across the board but I have seen MCU films get a bump with trailer drops for upcoming larger MCU releases.


    Lol the fandom thought they weren't even going to drop the trailer for Endgame until December and now we have two and some big spoilers

    @marvelgirl101 · Natasha (Romanoff)
    Mar 20, 2019, 5:49am PDT
  • Reply #9

    @guyett @guyett what are you basing your statement on that the Endgame trailer had an increase on Captain Marvel?

    The trailer dropped on the Wednesday, Thursday showed a marked increase:https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2018a.htmespecially as pretty much everything else dropped:https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2019-03-14&p=.htm

    This reminded me of something from late 2017:

    trailer dropped November 29thhttps://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2017.htm

    I don't think this applies across the board but I have seen MCU films get a bump with trailer drops for upcoming larger MCU releases.


    While I buy the argument that it impacted Thursday numbers I'm not sure there was a significant impact through the weekend totals. It still dropped like most MCU movies over the Fri-Sun

    @jakthird · jakthird (R)
    Mar 20, 2019, 5:52am PDT
  • Reply #10

    what are you basing your statement on that the Endgame trailer had an increase on Captain Marvel?

    The trailer dropped on the Wednesday, Thursday showed a marked increase:https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2018a.htmespecially as pretty much everything else dropped:https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2019-03-14&p=.htm

    This reminded me of something from late 2017:

    trailer dropped November 29thhttps://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2017.htm

    I don't think this applies across the board but I have seen MCU films get a bump with trailer drops for upcoming larger MCU releases. While I buy the argument that it impacted Thursday numbers I'm not sure there was a significant impact through the weekend totals. It still dropped like most MCU movies over the Fri-Sun



    I think Friday got a bit of a bump but the Sat and Sun dropped typically.

    @guyett · Guyett
    Mar 20, 2019, 5:57am PDT
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