Pre-Pricing Predictions - Spring Week 4

@lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
Mar 17, 2019, 10:08am PDT

Hey FML! Here are some pricing predictions for next week's slate (going with a $70K bonus bar, which unfortunately due to the bottom of the slate probably can't go much higher):

Film / Price / Gross / % up/down from last week/LRF

  • Us / $777 / $54.4M / +13.3% from LRF of $48M
  • Captain Marvel / $540 / $37.8M / -45.5%
  • Wonder Park / $151 / $10.6M / -33.9%
  • Five Feet Apart / $126 / $8.8M / -33.2%
  • How to Train Your Dragon / $91 / $6.4M / -32.2%
  • Madea Family Funeral / $66 / $4.6M / -43%
  • Gloria Bell / $57 / $4M / --
  • No Manches Frida 2 / $32 / $2.2M / -42.5%
  • Captive State / $21 / $1.5M / -53.5%
  • LEGO Movie 2 / $21 / $1.5M / -31.1%
  • Alita Battle Angel / $17 / $1.2M / -37.4%
  • Green Book / $12 / $840K / -34.2%
  • Apollo 11 / $11 / $770K / -37.2%
  • Isn't It Romantic / $10 / $700K / -44.7%
  • Fighting With My Family / $10 / $700K / -36.9%

Couple of thoughts:

  • Us looks to be pretty well positioned as the box office winner next week, though there's a non-zero chance of Us disappointing + Marvel holding very strong that could give Marvel its 3rd weekend atop the box office. LRF trending upwards, strong wave of reviews after premiering at SXSW, buzz around Jordan Peele after his Get Out success, PLF/IMAX screens, and a film that appeals to horror fans, AA audiences, and generally anyone interested in critically acclaimed films - this one has all the ingredients to blow up the box office.
  • Us reminds me most of last year's blowup horror success, A Quiet Place, a film that opened to a huge box office while also legging out extremely well. The bigger question marks here are whether being more of a "true horror" than Get Out narrows its audience a bit, whether it gets substantial enough volume, and whether Captain Marvel remains big enough to hamper its box office. However, expect this one to get priced pretty reasonably above its already high LRF and still factor into the BP conversation
  • Captain Marvel looks to be trending down the path of a typical Marvel movie and not like its predecessor last year (Black Panther) that defied the typical Marvel trajectory. Next week, it will be losing some PLF's to Us, getting hit pretty hard competition-wise by Us, and also potentially lose some of the spring break bump that it got this week (though that one is debatable). On the one hand, expecting a 50%+ drop is totally reasonable if you believe this is going to play out just like a normal Marvel movie. On the other hand, this could start playing out like Wonder Woman, which legged out phenomenally well during the summer of 2017. How well Carol Danvers holds in the face of Jordan Peele will determine how pricing treats Captain Marvel for the rest of its run
  • After running away with BP this week, expect Wonder Park to get hit with some penalty pricing next week. Looking at comps like Sherlock Gnomes and Smallfoot, a hold in the 30-40% range is not out of question for WP, especially given that its audience is probably the most insulated from Us
  • Five Feet Apart also came in higher than a lot of us were expecting this weekend. The comps for 5FA vary in terms of week 2 but it feels like its best case scenario is Love, Simon, which had a -35.3% drop its second weekend. Us should eat into its teen demographic fairly substantially but a good hold isn't out of the question and a ballsy 7x play could be in the cards
  • HTTYD should rebound nicely from Wonder Park, assuming it holds enough volume. Madea did very well next weekend but Us will eat directly into its audience so it needs to get some more generous pricing
  • No Manches Frida 2 came in quite a bit higher than many were expecting but the comps for week 2 Pantellion releases are a bit all over the place - you have films like Overboard, which had a -32.9% hold, and then you have How To Be A Latin Lover with a 58% drop, and then there's the original No Manches Frida which had a -42.5% drop. Realistically, I think this one has to drop harder than the original NMF since its a sequel, but pricing will probably have a tough time figuring this one out
  • Captive State should fall hard and/or start splitting screens, like all films that opened extremely weak and faced market rejection (see Kin, Replicas, Serenity) + face heavy competition from Us. Pricing has to make the bar extremely low for this one to even keep it in contention as a 60%+ drop is definitely not out of the question
  • I also have a few other new additions to the slate here. Gloria Bell, which has been doing quite well in limited release, is going wide. Feels like Tully is a decent comp here in terms of audience, which managed $3.3M its OW. Price this one for $4M and hope that it doesn't blow up, given that it's relatively niche. Also adding Apollo 11, which did surprisingly well this weekend with another expansion. Hotel Mumbai is only getting 4 theaters so unfortunately one last week for IIR/FWMF

Anything look crazy mispriced here?

3 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Bump Apollo 11 up in price over greenbook. I would be shocked if Gloria made that much, but we'll see. You can probably get away with 100k pricing. I doubt you will see both Us and Marvel get 1x pricing like it is here

    @skeptical_julius · Skeptical Julius
    Mar 17, 2019, 1:20pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    They better price US to make 60+.

    @yallplayscared · That A**hole Minion (R)
    Mar 17, 2019, 1:25pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    They should split Us.

    And I would not price Gloria that high but do hope it's included. I don't think it's going THAT wide this weekend. It's expanding Nationwide but I was thinking 200+ to start. Certainly not seeing 1,000 theaters. Not yet at least.

    I almost want to say add the 20th anniversary re-release of Cruel Intentions which is wide and even has Thursday shows. Price it for around 1 Million I'm thinking. But that's if they don't split Us otherwise there's no room. I fully believe they should split it though.

    @mikescott85 · mikescott4485's Cineplex
    Mar 18, 2019, 7:43am PDT
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