Triangle GroupThink: Wonder Park Edition
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages, step right up and feast your eyes on the wonder and spectacle of this week's GroupThink. Experience the exhilarating highs and terrifying lows as we present for your amusement our analysis of this week's FML slate! There are no height restrictions here, so come one, come all and please - keep your hands and legs inside at all times.
The Thrill Rides
There's a reason we themed GroupThink around Wonder Park. Ticket sales were pointing in its direction pretty much all week, but with a 700K preview, even a low-end multiplier should guarantee you a BP this week. We expect it to trend similarly to Smallfoot and A Wrinkle in Time, so set your expectations for 14M+.
After holding pretty well for a non-holiday entry in the series (and in the face of CM's debut to boot), Madea was looking like a good dark horse candidate with a -35% drop seeming very attainable. But Wonder Park crushed its hopes and dreams, knocking this one six feet (screens?) under. Expect to see this as part of the fill for the 6x WP line-ups.
The Ferris Wheel
One of the staples of any amusement park is the Ferris Wheel, which despite not being the tallest, or the fastest, or even really very fun, still gets a lot of people to get on it. That's Green Book in a nutshell. Now in its 15th week (one less than record holder Bohemian Rhapsody), Green Book always seems to find enough of an audience to warrant consideration. And for many of us in the Triangles, it was a BP consideration for this week as well. But again, the assumed dominance of Wonder Park bumped Green Book down a notch, leaving this one to spin slowly in place.
The Midway is where you take your chances in games of luck in the hope that you might win a prize. And that describes many of our action-oriented options from this week's slate, including all three days from Captain Marvel, HTTYD 3 and Alita.
The R-F increase for CM is looking to be anywhere from 1.98 to 2.1 today. Movies from the MCU like Guardians and Civil War saw larger increases from R-F but we are tempering expectations due to the start of spring break. Most other comps landed at roughly a 2.05 increase. Of the three options, Saturday seemed to have the best value overall with most of us right around 30M for the day. Not quite enough to be BP but could be a solid anchor if WP massively underperforms.
While HTTYD 3 didn't get hammered with screen cuts in the same way as entries at the bottom of the slate did, pricing didn't do it any favors. As for Alita, nothing about it stood out sufficiently other than to be filler on the back-end of a WP line-up. If you went heavy on either of these, as the saying goes: play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Five Feet Apart looked like it might be a fun ride on Monday considering it has the teen heartthrob Cole Sprouse making a solid social media push.
Dreamy, isn't he? BUT as the ride went on and Friday set in and you realized right before you got on that if you follow through you are going to be very sick after playing it. And nothing ever seems to work out well for the sick kids in these kinds of movies, does it?
Nothing epitomizes the ups and downs of a rollercoaster better than Greta. After debuting as the Worst Performer, it ascended to the heights of Best Performer the following week, just edging out Captain Marvel Friday. But the view from the top is short-lived, as middling performance and a massive theater drop has Greta plummeting back into Worst Performer valley. If you find yourself playing Greta, hope you took your Dramamine.
The House of Horrors
Haunted houses tend to be a mixed bag at amusement parks, full of shoddy props and crummy jump scares that make you wonder why you bothered getting on in the first place. The same could be said for Fighting With My Family, Isn't It Romantic and Lego Movie 2. Each had significant theater or showtime cuts that put them out of the running pretty early on. Most of the likely line-ups this week probably allowed you to avoid them, but if you've got one in your line-up, this might be you come Monday…
Closed for Renovation
Sometimes a ride opens and is immediately plagued with mechanical problems. A few people get to go on, but it spends most of its time idle without anybody enjoying it. Well, that's what we expect Captive State and No Manches Frida 2 to be like. To be fair, NMF2 will draw its core audience, but we don't expect it to find cross-over appeal that would allow it to earn much more than the original. As for Captive State, weak ticket sales has this hovering in sub-$4M territory. While it'll do better than Kin or Replicas, that's not saying much. Expect these rides to be disassembled and put away for good in a couple of weeks.
TL;DR:Mar 15, 2019, 10:02am PDTEdited
This was awesome. Nice job tying in the theme park analogies!Mar 15, 2019, 10:52am PDT
Great job guys. Sorry I wasn't around for this one, but obviously we can all do Greta GTs.Mar 15, 2019, 11:48am PDT
That was supposed to be great, but apparently my phone thinks I spend more time talking about GretaMar 15, 2019, 11:48am PDT
Mar 15, 2019, 12:37pm PDT
Excellent work as always.Mar 15, 2019, 1:18pm PDT
Nicely done TrianglesMar 15, 2019, 1:40pm PDT
Nice write up and great analysisMar 15, 2019, 5:23pm PDT