Weekly Comps with Waco and Nux

@waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
Mar 14, 2019, 7:42pm PDT

Hello all and welcome back for another dose of Weekly Comps with @waco_kid and @nux!
For those that are new, this thread is meant to help you find films that can assist in determining how a movie will perform each week.
We start with feel comps for the New Releases and those in their second week, then @nuxdistance applies his methodology to find additional comps for the 2nd week and older holdovers.
So lets see what we have this week:


Five Feet Apart

Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date
Everything, Everything | 11,727,390 | 2,801 | 4,187 | 34,121,140 | 5/19/2017
Love,Simon | 11,756,244 | 2,402 | 4,894 | 40,826,341 | 3/16/2018

Keys to Comps: Young adult films. Both comp films deal opened in the Spring. Everything, Everything follows Five Feet Apart to a tee regarding teen love but illness gets in the way. Five Feet Apart is opening to the same number of theaters as EE, so it is fair to expect a similar performance. Love,Simon opened on this same weekend last year. Both films opened to around 11.7M so we feel confident Five Feet Apart will do the same.

Wonder Park

Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date
Sherlock Gnomes | 10,604,774 | 3,662 | 2,896 | 3/23/2018
Smallfoot | 23,045,635 | 4,131 | 5,579 | 9/28/2018

Keys to Comps: Non-Disney Animation that isn't Spiderman: Into the Spider-verse. Wonder Park opens this weekend in a similar spot to Sherlock Gnomes last year. With Wonder Park having slightly more theaters, expect it to exceed Sherlock Gnomes. The gangbusters option is Smallfoot. Wonder Park has been doing well with presales. It will not get up to Smallfoot territory, but it will perform very well especially with competition from Lego 2 and How to Train your Dragon.

No Manches Frida 2

Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date
No Manches Frida | 3,676,235 | 362 | 10,155 | 11,528,613 | 9/2/2016

Keys to Comps: Sequel to decent Spanish film. Problems with Frida 2 is that it is a Rated R where as the original was PG-13. That's a red flag. It is opening in the same number of theaters. So given the bump in rating and the case of sequelitis, it will most likely not meet the OW numbers of the original.

Captive State

Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date
Replicas | 2,375,325 | 2,329 | 1,020 | 4,046,429 | 1/11/2019

Keys to Comps: Sci-Fi niche film. Honestly, there is not much to go on here. There has been little to no advertising to go on here. The cast is a bunch of unknowns and John Goodman. Replicas is as close to a comp as we'll get here. Captive State has 200 more theaters so we can expect it to perform better than Replicas, so 2.3-2.4 is the floor this week.

Holdovers in Second Week

Captain Marvel

Movie | BO | Theaters | BO% Change | TC Change | PTA
Avengers: Age of Ultron | 77,746,929 | 4,276 | -59.4% | Null | 18,182
Black Panther Week 4 | 40,817,579 | 3,942 | -38.4% | -3.84% | 10,355

Keys to Comps: Marvel films close to Captain Marvel's release date. In looking at Ultron, the drop percentage is a little daunting, but based on the dailies this week, Ultron may be a good comp from a total BO perspective. Another comp if looking at dailies is Black Panther in Week 4. The dailies were similar Monday-Wednesday. As far as the splits this week. We'll leave it up to your imaginations.

3 Replies

  • Reply #1

    No Nuxdistance this week guys. I'm sorry but work has crushed me this week. I'll be back soon!

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Mar 14, 2019, 8:12pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    Captive State is not just John Goodman, it also has Machine Gun Kelly for some reason

    @iggy · Iggman
    Mar 15, 2019, 7:24am PDT
  • Reply #3

    I also would have added Upgrade as the ceiling comp, doubt it'll reach that level, but almost no promotion on a well reviewed sci-if movie could yield some results at 4.6 mil

    @iggy · Iggman
    Mar 15, 2019, 7:28am PDT
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