Pre-Pricing Predictions - Awards Week 11

@lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
Feb 10, 2019, 12:43pm PSTEdited

Hey FML - lets hit the reset button after this bummer of a week (for most of us). Ton of new releases and lineup variety coming next week, similar to this past week. With a 4-day weekend, Valentine's Day, and some Wednesday/Thursday releases, next weekend has a lot of moving parts. Going with an $80K bar for now, though I could see anything from 70-95K working pretty well:

Film / Price / Gross / % up/down from last week/LRF

  • Happy Death Day 2 U / $351 / $28.1M / +40.4% from 3-day LRF of $20M
  • LEGO Movie 2 / $334 / $26.7M / -22.3%
  • Alita Battle Angel / $311 / $24.5M / +40.4% from 3-day LRF of $17M
  • Isn't It Romantic / $251 / $20.1M / +33.9% from 3-day LRF of $15M
  • What Men Want / $186 / $14.9M / -21.7%
  • Cold Pursuit / $94 / $7.5M / -30.4%
  • The Upside / $86 / $6.9M / -4.4%
  • Glass / $50 / $4M / -37.5%
  • The Prodigy / $45 / $3.6M / -40%
  • Green Book / $43 / $3.4M / -4.4%
  • Aquaman / $33 / $2.6M / -20%
  • Into the Spider-Verse / $32 / $2.6M / -14.7%
  • Miss Bala / $18 / $1.4M / -46.7%
  • A Dog's Way Home / $16 / $1.3M / -36%
  • Escape Room / $14 / $1.1M / -34.1%

Couple of thoughts:

  • This past week looks like about $70M in new release money; the upcoming week looks like it has the potential to go above that with the 4-day weekend, despite not having any "heavy hitters" like LEGO was supposed to be. That said, 2019 has been off to a brutal start, with Glass, LEGO, and WMW coming in well below expectations and Upside being the only winner of the year. Will next weekend break the curse of 2019 and allow new releases to shine?
  • It's tough to figure out how the 4-day weekend will shake out. 2018 had Black Panther ($242M), 2017 only brought in $40M in new release money, 2016 had Deadpool, Zoolander, and How To Be Single pull over $187M, 2015 had Kingsman and Fifty Shades pull in over $134M, and I don't like using comps prior to 2015 since the box office has changed quite a bit since then. So while we'll definitely see some solid holds this weekend, it's unclear how strong they will be since we haven't had a President's Day weekend with this kind of volume in a while.
  • Happy Death Day - LRF declined pretty dramatically a few weeks ago but that's because the film moved its release date to Wednesday after a request from a Parkland victim's parents. Classy move on HDD2U's part - but definitely adds some complexity to the week. Does a Wednesday release burn off a ton of demand? How does Valentine's Day factor into the equation? Never underestimate Blumhouse - tracking for this one looks pretty decent but I don't know that anything suggests it will explode past its LRF
  • Alita is probably the bigger wild card of next week. With James Cameron's name attached to it, an existing fanbase, and some apparently decent reviews (?), Alita has a lot going for it. But a heavily 3D skew in its showtimes, some pretty weak/uninspiring marketing, and the tepid reaction to the CGI all act as drags here. I'm not really sure who Alita is targeting and it's giving off some pretty strong Mortal Engines vibes - that said, we'll hopefully have a full day of Thursday numbers to help us figure out if this is DOA or not
  • Isn't It Romantic rounds out the trifecta of V-Day options. The obvious comp here is I Feel Pretty which cleared a cool $16M on a non-Valentine's Day weekend. Assuming reviews aren't complete trash, it should have a decent floor, but also has the potential to get lost in the shuffle a little bit.
  • After an incredibly disappointing opening weekend, it'll be interesting to see how LEGO does from here. The strong reviews and having the kids market basically to itself will definitely help it leg out, but it is part of a franchise now and there's definitely a chance of some frontloadedness.
  • Similarly, after disappointing all of us 2x players this week, WMW has a lot to prove next week. It definitely benefits from a Valentine's Day bump and should be priced accordingly, but with a lot of competition in the Valentine's Day market, it's definitely still a gamble
  • Should be another round of decent TC cuts to make room for all the new releases, though probably not as painful as this past week. I think next week's new releases are less direct competition to a lot of existing films on the slate than this week's so across the board, I think there's potential for some decent holds
  • Liam Neeson should own the adult male market for quite a few weeks and I'd expect Cold Pursuit to start behaving like The Mule; Upside has to get another round of BP-penalty pricing + priced for a rebound from WMW so expect it to be near unplayable next week; Glass, ER, and Prodigy get hit hard on the horror front by HDD2U; Spidey and Dog could rebound a bit from LEGO, assuming they don't get destroyed on TC; Green Book could rebound a bit from WMW

Any thoughts here? Anything look super over/underpriced?

12 Replies

  • Reply #1

    EDIT: Updated with 4-day weekend prices

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Feb 10, 2019, 12:52pm PSTEdited
  • Reply #2

    You forgot Foghtig With My Family, which according to ProBO is debuting in 2200 theaters

    @iggy · Iggman
    Feb 10, 2019, 1:53pm PST
  • Reply #3

    Is that coming out this week? Long range tracking page said it's coming out on 2/22 but it might not be updated

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Feb 10, 2019, 1:55pm PST
  • Reply #4

    Yeah looks like it's getting a limited release this week and then going to 2,200 theaters next weekend

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Feb 10, 2019, 1:56pm PST
  • Reply #5

    Thoughts on that last slot going to something besides ER?

    @plexy · Plexy △
    Feb 10, 2019, 3:00pm PST
  • Reply #6

    @lalalight Yeah looks like it's getting a limited release this week and then going to 2,200 theaters next weekend

    Oh ok

    @iggy · Iggman
    Feb 10, 2019, 4:24pm PST
  • Reply #7

    @plexy yeah the more I think about it, it probably makes more sense for Bohemian to stay on the slate for one more week. ER seems to have played less and less to a teen audience over the past few weeks and more of an older demographic which makes me think it's not a complete overlap with HDD2U but the PTA for BR and lower level of competition probably make it a safer choice for the 15th spot

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Feb 10, 2019, 4:27pm PST
  • Reply #8

    Checked, it appears it's debuting in 4 theaters

    @iggy · Iggman
    Feb 10, 2019, 4:32pm PST
  • Reply #9

    Yeah right now Fighting is just opening in ny/la on Valentine's Day right now. But BR seems likely to land in that last spot. We can never get rid of it.

    @realfakefilms · Real Fake Films: Simple Jack △
    Feb 10, 2019, 8:44pm PST
  • Reply #10

    I think Lego will still be the most expensive movie.

    @time_is_illmatic · My friends, you bow to no one
    Feb 11, 2019, 7:41am PST
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