Thursday Fandango Check - Awards Week 10

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Feb 7, 2019, 10:13am PST

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to RFF's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.

Bonus Bar will be set at $80k.

The Newbies

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | $500/show |DEBUT
What Men Want | $462/show |DEBUT
Cold Pursuit | $401/show |DEBUT
The Prodigy | $256/show |DEBUT

  • 112k shows for The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part is about 4k ahead of Cars 3 in its OW. Cars 3 grossed $496/show. For a non-Summer comp, L2 is 9k ahead of Trolls, which grossed $451/show.
  • 59k shows for What Men Want is about 5k fewer than Night School's OW, which grossed $425/show.
  • 37k shows for Cold Pursuit is about 2k fewer than The Mule's OW, which grossed $447/show. If you like The Commuter as a comp, volume & holiday make this one tough. The Commuter had 9k more shows on FSS with a $/show of $253/show over its FSSM.
  • 39k shows for The Prodigy is about 2k fewer than Strangers: Prey At Night from last March. Strangers grossed $249/show.

Holdover Tiers

Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.

None this week

Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.

The Upside | $177/show |-9.2%
Glass | $156/show |-13.7%
Miss Bala | $128/show |-32.4%

Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.

Green Book | $185/show |19.0%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse | $186/show |16.3%

DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.

Aquaman | $216/show |42.3%
A Dog's Way Home | $155/show |54.2%
The Kid Who Would Be King | $156/show |60.2%
Escape Room | $194/show |47.7%
Bohemian Rhapsody | $228/show |44.5%
Mary Poppins Returns | $212/show |76.4%

1 Reply

  • Reply #1

    Thanks as always for this Phil! Pretty clear week from Fandango. Interesting to see where final TCs shake out.

    @lurker · Still Showing Indiana Jones: The Last Crusade
    Feb 7, 2019, 11:03am PST
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