What Men Want is a Bonus Bar and Contenders - Awards Week 10

@realfakefilms · Real Fake Films: Angels with Filthy... △
Feb 6, 2019, 10:39pm PSTEdited

The Royal Steward of Gondor humbly provides a quick bonus bar, with no ill-intention of usurping the throne of the rightful king. But the kingdom deserves a bar, so here it is, 80k

The higher the bar goes, the more likely it is that the bonus goes to one of the newcomers. However good holds are natural after Super Bowl weekend because of the Sunday hit to the box office.

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $56,240,000 +2.25% (LRF: $55,000,000)

Strong reviews for a sequel to a beloved film that opened to 69 million dollars. However, intervene sequels like Batman and FML favorite Ninjago may have brought some fatigue to this franchise. Right now tickets sales pace ahead of HT3, but don't forget Teen Titans Go, ticket sales in this demo, under WBA, are certainly be tricky.

What Men Want $27,360,000 +14.00% (LRF: $24,000,000)

Does this bring in the reboot crowd? Is this a tired premise? Early ticket sales have it ahead of Night School, but Schmidt from New Girl is no Kevin Hart.

Cold Pursuit $14,880,000 +24.00% (LRF: $12,000,000)

Mr. Plow, that's his name. Mr. Plow is overpriced. Unless this performs like Taken, rather than The Commuter or Walk Through the Tombstones.

The Prodigy $10,080,000 +75.30% (LRF: $5,750,000)

FML overprices horror. This isn't even PG13. It does, however, have a crazy number of YouTube views, so decide if that matters to you.

The Upside $7,040,000 -18.88%

The Upside has had tremendous holds during its run. What Men Want might be its first real competition. But should hold volume and has had very strong Mon and Tues PTA holds.

Glass $6,400,000 -32.98%

Glass was one of the films most affected by the Super Bowl. However, it also loses a lot of IMAX the weekend. Keep an eye on Wednesday dailies, should also have safe capacity.

Green Book $3,840,000 -11.67%

Strong awards film. Has had great legs, but a terrible expansion. Unless it expands or has an amazing Wednesday probably not a player.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $3,760,000 -17.34%

Poor Spidey, like CRA and ASTAR Vincent Pricing has been killing it. It has had excellent early dailies, but a super high bar and its first true competition in Lego.

Miss Bala $3,760,000 -45.23%

Market rejection or just Super Bowl depression? That's the question. But guaranteed capacity, certain Super Bowl bounce back, and a super low bar should keep this on your radar until tomorrow.

Aquaman $3,680,000 -24.59%

Not priced as bad as Spidey or as good as Bala. Is this porridge just right or lukewarm. Dailies so far have been strong. TC is very much in question.

A Dog's Way Home $2,720,000 -24.77%

With Lego entering and huge volume of theaters being cut this dog is probably on its way home. If it keeps decent volume it will be worth considering. With a 57.7% Sun drop it should bounce back, but not as much as adult-oriented films.

The Kid Who Would Be King $2,720,000 -35.96%

Volume will tell the story here. Tough competition, but may have capacity to play. Its mediocre PTA last week is likely to lead to massive cuts.

Escape Room $2,320,000 -20.49%

This isn't Get Out. This isn't keeping its theaters.

Bohemian Rhapsody $1,440,000 -20.79%

A magical unpredictable run. Does it keep theaters? Top 5 contender. Does it lose 15% or more? Skeptical it can possible get there. Hits VOD this weekend, should lower the prospective audience.

Mary Poppins Returns $1,360,000 -33.27%

In addition to losing a ton of theaters, Lego introduces another competition in a mostly disappointing run for MPR. Low bar, so if it not completely cut in half it might be worth a watch.

4 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Even on a weel where you think everyone is playing it close to the chest for the next weeks, we still get a BB and TWO tiers.

    Thanks RFF.

    I mostly agree but have in my mind already discarded Bala (direct competition) and King Kid (market rejection).

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Feb 6, 2019, 10:46pm PST
  • Reply #2

    Thanks RFF

    @guyett · Guyett
    Feb 7, 2019, 12:35am PST
  • Reply #3

    He hate me... ?

    Thanks, Real fake.

    @faster · Faster (R)
    Feb 7, 2019, 5:08am PST
  • Reply #4

    Well done. Thanks.

    . . . certainly be tricky.

    This typo would be a great 90s rapper name. "Opening tonight for Snoop Dogg, give it up for Certainly B. Tricky!"

    @omalpha · I Am The Omalpha
    Feb 7, 2019, 7:04am PST
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