BSA Awards Week 10: "A BSA Best Served Cold!"
Good Wednesday all, BS here, with your Awards Week 10 BSA! First, a recap of last week's BSA, which saw Green Book hold fairly well, but in the end, it was all about the FML pricing. Green Book was steeply penalized, after being last week's BP winner, and ended up as a non-factor in the week 9 BP race. It also never factored into the Week 9 PC, with 2 movies (Spiderman and Aquaman) beating it straight up.
It's been a good time to be a BSA backer, as the hot streak has been notable:
Awards Season: 9 for 9
2019: 5 for 5
It's never too late to join the BSArmy, and what better week than the one coming up?!? With 4 new releases, you know I'm taking my cuts at one of them. It's a no brainer advisory for me this week. So, for Awards Week 10, the BSA advises against....
Liam Neeson is back at it.....AGAIN, with his latest revenge thriller. Unfortunately, the topic of revenge is far too close to home for the Irishman, and here's why Cold Pursuit is getting snowed under.
As in, REALLY BAD PUBLICITY. Liam Neeson's admission this week, regarding his real life revenge mission, by looking for a confrontation with a black person is about as bad as it gets. They canceled the red carpet premiere last night (still held the showing, but no glitz and glam). There is no way to spin this in a positive light. Any pre-release buzz this movie had, due to its strong early reviews, has been crushed. There are red flags with movies and then there are RED FLAGS, like what we've got here. This is screaming DO NOT SCREEN!
Cold Pursuit is priced this week at $186 FML BUX. It can conceivably be screened as a 5x anchor. I think that is a very dangerous option. With the bad press now overwhelming it, what once may have been a reasonable bonus bar to reach, is now completely off the table. As far as a high end filler goes, you could screen it 1x, behind either Lego or What Men Want, but I think that relies upon Cold Pursuit reaching into the teens. This leads me into my HOT TAKES for Week 10:
HOT TAKE #1
Cold Pursuit will make LESS than $10 mil this weekend.
HOT TAKE #2
5x Cold Pursuit will make less than 1x Lego Movie 2.
The presales so far for Cold Pursuit have been tepid, at best. Granted, this is not usually the genre for huge presales, but even taking that into account, things don't look good.
In a week which should see a much higher FML Box Office total, it is far too risky to count on Cold Pursuit to plow its way to the BP. The avalanche of bad press will prevent it from having any chance to succeed. As for being a filler option? I also don't see that happening, as there will be better choices which use up less FML BUX than the $186 price for Cold Pursuit. As always, good luck!
Currently, over 1/4 of FML needs the help of this BSA, AND MR. Plow!Feb 6, 2019, 12:14pm PSTEdited
2 reasons I'm currently not following the BSA and still have it in my lineup.
1)I understand the controversy about Neeson's comments, but the target audience for this(middle-aged to older males) wouldn't seem to care. If the Kevin Hart controversy didn't affect The Upside's grosses, I think it'll be the same. Also, I think the excellent Rotten Tomatoes score could offset this.
2)With the "Super" Bowl last weekend, that's it for football for a long time. Lots of men(including myself) now have our Sundays back and this movie seems to overlap a lot with that audience.
Again, my opinion may change as I do more homework for the week but I think it definitely gets over $10 million for the weekend.Feb 6, 2019, 12:38pm PSTEdited
I think the "controversy" regarding ole Liam might be overblown. He admitted what a flawed way of thinking he had back then when trying to come to grips with the appalling thing that had happened to his friend.
We were all young and stupid at one point in time. Being able to admit and own your mistakes doesn't make you look worse in my book.Feb 6, 2019, 12:44pm PST
I don't think the Kevin Hart thing and the Liam Neeson thing are very comparable, not to mention The Upside was also sold as much on Cranston, while Neeson is the lone selling point.Feb 6, 2019, 12:56pm PST
Feb 6, 2019, 1:16pm PST
Feb 6, 2019, 1:17pm PST
@ingy I don't think the Kevin Hart thing and the Liam Neeson thing are very comparable, not to mention The Upside was also sold as much on Cranston, while Neeson is the lone selling point.
I was never planning on seeeing it because of Liam Neeson, I just want to see a bunch of people getting murdered with snow plows and treesFeb 6, 2019, 3:46pm PST
The controversy with Liam isn't exactly front page news. So I'm not sure how many even know about it.
And three words: Den of ThievesFeb 6, 2019, 5:14pm PST
And three words: Den of Thieves
The box office appeal of Gerard Butler is something top scientists have been trying to crack for the past 10 years. Still no theories. He's no superstar, but if you need a small movie to net you some positive gains, he's somehow your guy. Even his unsuccessful films are minor losses.Feb 6, 2019, 5:23pm PST
Question-If one of your Hot Takes is wrong do you count your BSA as a loss or are they just random personal thoughts that you throw on these BSA's? I think personally that if any part of your BSA is wrong including your hot takes it should count as a loss. If the BSA is so helpful you should own all parts of the content. If one thing is wrong that should be a big ole "L"Feb 6, 2019, 7:16pm PST