Bonus Bar and Contenders - Awards - Week 7 - 2018

@guyett · Guyett
Jan 15, 2019, 7:01am PSTEdited

Hey everyone, Guyett back being a bigger disappointment to RFF than Fourth Wall.


Week 7 Bonus Bar is set at $80k


GLASS F+S | $46.88m (New Release) | LRF has dropped -25% to $50m, this bar represents a 48% increase over its LRF for the weekend combined. Critical reviews are not hot but we have seen very recently in Venom, and further back in The Greatest Showman, that sometimes the critics are out of touch with what audiences want. Ticket presales, however, are looking less than spectacular here.


GLASS S+M | $26.88m (New Release) | see GLASS S+M


THE UPSIDE | $16.96m (-16.68%) | Deadline had the demo for The Upside at 46% women over 25 and 29% men over 25. Diversity reach is broad on Upside, with 45% Caucasians, 25% African-American, and 19% Hispanic. This shows that The Upside skews old and is quite diverse.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=bucketlist.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=grantorino.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=itscomplicated.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=savingmrbanks.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=joy.htm


AQUAMAN | $15.2m (-12.40%) | Glass is a bit of a weird film but it definitely taps into the Superhero market, which will eat into Aquaman. Mamoa is going to be shedding PLF's to Glass, and possibly to Dragon Ball too. The last three Christmas Star Wars releases all dropped -38.4%, -23.8% and -22.0%, I am not expecting Aquaman to outperform here.


A DOGS WAY HOME | $10.24m (-8.99%) | Bit tricky finding a kids film hitting MLK weekend in its second outing. Hitting other 4 day weekends though gives us a lot of hope for hitting this bar:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=peterrabbit.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=lego.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=leap.htm
And looking at other kids film this weekend strong holds are not out of the ordinary:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=jumanji2016.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=disney1116.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=weboughtazoo.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=alvinandthechipmunksii.htm



SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDERVERSE | $10.08m (+11.37%) | Both Glass and Dragon Ball hit Spider-Man's base, and like Aquaman it may be losing PLF's. However as Mem highlighted in the Coming Attractions thread there are expansions in films expecting Oscar noms. Additionally as highlighted above films targeting kids, and teenagers here, show strong holds.


DRAGON BALL SUPER: BROLY | $6.96m (New Release) | The latest Dragon Ball release lands on Wednesday in the States and ticket sales are looking incredible. The main question here is whether the midweek opening will burn through the demand. Broly has already quadrupled the opening day sales of My Hero Academia: Two Heroes


MARY POPPINS RETURNS | $5.84m (-23.67%) | Mary Poppins Returns has disappointed each weekend of its run, perhaps this MLK weekend is it's time to shine:
Greatest Showman +17.5%
Les Mis -6.5%
Into the Woods -8.9%
Sweeney Todd -4.1%


BUMBLEBEE | $5.60m (-22.31%) | As highlighted above films that skew quite young hold well this weekend, Bumblebee still has some PLF's to relinquish though.


ESCAPE ROOM | $5.36m (-39.97%) | Typically horror films crater in their second weekend before rebounding in their third weekend. Escape Room held better than some expected last weekend (but not as well as I had it from its strong dailies) and coming into a four day weekend this bar is very very reasonable, with one caveat. Should Escape Room lose a significant amount of volume it will take a lot to hit the bar.


BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY | $4.96m (+54.91%) | As mentioned above, and in the Coming Attractions thread, we are likely to see expansions in films expecting Oscar Nominations. Also as mentioned for Mary Poppins Returns, musicals really overperform this weekend, the sing along shows will help push BR towards the bar.


THE MULE | $4.48m (-21.04%) | The Mule is due a theatre count cut, especially with a mediocre PTA of about $1,700 in 3,300 theatres. See The Upside to see how older skewing releases hold this weekend.


ON THE BASIS OF SEX | $4.48m (-26.20%) | RBG didn't perform as well as it could have last weekend, perhaps the adverse weather conditions hit it worse than other releases. Hidden Figures and Selma are interesting comps for this weekend, once you account for the expansion and the MLK day effect.


IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK | $4.08m (+69.52%) | See Bohemian Rhapsody, but ignore the musical bump.


GREEN BOOK | $3.12m (+45.30%) | See Bohemian Rhapsody, but ignore the musical bump.

76 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Very helpful and very cool

    @realfakefilms · Real Fake Films: The Rural Juror △
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:09am PST
  • Reply #2

    Looking for appropriate response in GIF form.


    BRB.

    @the_hersh · The Hersh
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:09am PST
  • Reply #3

    Lol! This is great!!! - although I may not include it in this weeks column. (It would throw new players off. Hehehe)

    @penny · Not Penny's Boat
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:11am PST
  • Reply #4

    I'll post a legit bonus bar this evening. It's time for this nonsense to end.

    @realfakefilms · Real Fake Films: The Rural Juror △
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:13am PST
  • Reply #5

    Personally, I have my bonus bar
    image

    @iggy · Iggman
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:26am PST
  • Reply #6

    Calm down, its a *** joke.

    @stark · The Majestic Starkplex
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:48am PST
  • Reply #7

    ff92f780f9bdb4dff0675f9109320bbc.gif

    @seesomething · IYSSSS (IOU)
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:49am PST
  • Reply #8

    tenor.gif

    @undecided_voter · More Useless Sequels for President △
    Jan 15, 2019, 7:49am PST
  • Reply #9

    For prosperities sake:


    Hey everyone, Guyett back with the Week 5 Bonus Bar.


    Bonus Bar is set at over $9k


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    GLASS F+S | $5.27m (New Release) | Even with a sliding LRF Glass should go over this bar.


    GLASS S+M | $3.02m (New Release) | See GLASS F+S


    THE UPSIDE | $1.91m (-90.63%) | Not even the Hart Oscars and Weinstein controversies could tank The Upside this much.


    AQUAMAN | $1.71m (-90.14%) | Aquaman should take a bit of a hit from the incoming pseudo-superhero flick, but this drop is taking the cake. Mamoa is going to blow passed this bar.


    A DOGS WAY HOME | $1.15m (-89.76%) | Expect a very very strong hold from the doggos here as the main kids release.


    SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDERVERSE | $1.13m (-87.47%) | See Aquaman


    DRAGON BALL SUPER: BROLY | $783k (New Release) | Good luck with this one, it should pass the 9,000! Bar for sure but determining just how much of its overall gross it burns through on its Wednesday opening is the key question.


    MARY POPPINS RETURNS | $657k (-91.41%) | Poppers has not failed in disappointing in every week of its release. Something something The Greatest Showman, something something 7x.


    BUMBLEBEE | $63 (-91.26%) | See Aquaman


    ESCAPE ROOM | $603 (-93.25%) | Horror typically falls hard week two before holding strong in week three, with a four day weekend expect an extremely strong PTA hold. The main question is how much volume it can hold onto.


    BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY | $558k (-82.57%) | Freddie is likely going to see another expansion with the Oscar nominations coming out in a week (thanks to Mem for highlighting that). However the bonus bar is going to be obliterated even without an expansion.


    THE MULE | $504k (-91.13%) | The Mule is due a theatre count cut, especially with a mediocre PTA of about $1,700 in 3,300 theatres. It will, however, sneak past this bar.


    ON THE BASIS OF SEX | $504k (-91.70%) | RBG didn't perform as well as it could have last weekend, perhaps the adverse weather conditions hit it worse than other releases. Hidden Figures and Selma are interesting comps for this weekend, once you account for the expansion and the MLK day effect. Regardless


    IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK | $459k (-80.93%) | See Bohemian Rhapsody


    GREEN STREET | $351k (-83.65%) | See Bohemian Rhapsody



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    @guyett · Guyett
    Jan 15, 2019, 8:20am PST
  • Reply #10

    I'll post a legit bonus bar this evening. It's time for this nonsense to end.


    Calm down dear, it was a joke while I wrote the actual one. I know you are quite emotional with regards the bar and have trouble respecting some people but I'd ask you to try not be such a rude ***** all the time with me, and maybe have a read of your last email to me.
    Cheers,
    Paul

    @guyett · Guyett
    Jan 15, 2019, 8:34am PST
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