神経グループ2考える - あなたは忘れない

@nerv · Nerv
Jan 11, 2019, 2:05pm PST

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Due to our friends at the round table adjudicating this week, we thought we'd step in to give you a primer on the weekend.


The Upside

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/kevin-harts-upside-earns-11m-box-office-previews-1175399
https://deadline.com/2019/01/kevin-hart-the-upside-aquaman-keanu-reeves-replicas-dogs-way-home-weekend-box-office-1202533526/

Spoiler: if you didn't play 5x Upside, you won't be in the running for PC this weekend.

The Upside was one of our top contenders the entire week. But, the 1.1 million presale gross made it our only contender. STX's track record of disappointing releases were outweighed by strong Fandango sales and comps pointing to a high teens/low twenties thursday multiplier. That made a 5x play the clear choice this week. While Deadline predicts a 5.5-7.5 Friday, both our metrics point to the higher end of this range. Don't be surprised if Upside's final gross begins with a 2, unless the big midwestern storm ravages the box office on Saturday.


Screen 6:

Now, what about that sixth screen? With a 5x Upside play, pricing only gave us one more screen to film. Our three choices this week to fill screen six were Replicas, Vice, and Bohemian Rhapsody.

Replicas: Entertainment Studios puts this one at 6-7M, and BOM says 7.0M, so if you put any weight into the pros this was your go-to. However, Fandango sales pointed to Replicas performing like a slightly more walkup heavy A.X.L, finishing well below the 4M Deadline has today. The prediction comp average was 2.85, and that matched our thinking for this week. Thursday multipliers make it look even worse.

Vice: Vice has been a relative disappointment so far, and TC/showtimes cuts along with On the Basis of Sex's release would lend you to believe Vice would be due for a big drop-off. Like BR, a slight Golden Globes effect could help rise Vice a bit higher than expectations, but even without that, mid 3's still seems likely. Additionally, solid dailies (Vice was consistently several hundred thousand dollars above BR and was neck and neck in ticket sales) drove us to Vice as our top screen 6 choice.

Bohemian Rhapsody: Priced for a huge re-expansion after the Golden Globes surprise, BR didn't get one. It needed an increase over 65-70% to get to the bar, which is just not feasible when only adding 23% more theaters in both the top 40+1 and overall. While the different screening types (Sing A Long, IMAX) seem impressive, after another week of expansions it likely won't have a meaningful impact on the weekend total. Presales look to be slightly worse than Vice today, which won't be enough to catch it.


Conclusion: 5xUpside/1xVice/2xBlanks

6 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Don't think Upside has enough Friday juice for 20, but hey, what do I know

    @furiosa · Furiosa
    Jan 11, 2019, 2:19pm PST
  • Reply #2

    @furiosa I think 20M is very achievable for a standard mult- I'm with Nerv! (whoever he is...)

    @devil · Devil
    Jan 11, 2019, 2:29pm PST
  • Reply #3

    A bit higher than I had it at, but a big mult (20x or above) was certainly possible.

    @lurker · Still Showing Blade Runner 2049
    Jan 11, 2019, 2:36pm PST
  • Reply #4

    Adjudicating?



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    @thisismyboomstick · Adam's Derelict Drive-In ◬
    Jan 11, 2019, 3:05pm PST
  • Reply #5

    Now I feel greedy and overconfident by wishcasting that the film I hope will get BP does not do too well.....


    I blame non-standard leagues!!!!

    @nosferatus_shadow · ... _ _ _ _._. _._
    Jan 11, 2019, 3:22pm PST
  • Reply #6

    This nerv seems like a pretty smart guy. But I think you're wrong about how simple his decision seemed. Presales for a movie in Week 11 were off the chain. Comparing them evenly is a completely wrong approach to presales. Week 3 vs. Week 11 is a major difference in how you should approach presales.

    @lars · La Forza del Destino
    Jan 11, 2019, 5:05pm PST
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