Thursday Fandango Check - Awards Week 6

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Jan 10, 2019, 10:53am PST

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…

Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.

Bonus Bar will be set at $75.0k.

The Newbies

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW

A Dog's Way Home | $317/show |DEBUT
The Upside | $318/show |DEBUT
On the Basis of Sex | $365/show |DEBUT
Replicas | $128/show |DEBUT
If Beale Street Could Talk | $274/show |DEBUT

49k shows for A Dog's Way Home is about 1500 fewer than 2017's A Dog's Purpose, which grossed $359/show
44k shows for The Upside is about how many shows Bryan Cranston's last major FML foray, Why Him?, had. WH grossed $345/show... over Christmas.
34k shows for Replicas is about 3k more than Unsane when it opened last March. Unsane grossed $122/show.
28k shows for On the Basis of Sex is pretty close to Annihilation's opening weekend, which managed $385/show.
15k shows for If Beale Street Could Talk is right around Green Book's expansion weekend when it grossed $372/show. Keep in mind that the Top 40+1 indicated that BS should be around 1100 theaters, so keep an eye on TC.

Holdover Tiers

Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.

None this week

Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.

Aquaman | $331/show |-19.8%
Escape Room | $274/show |-27.0%
Mary Poppins Returns | $214/show |-12.2%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse | $230/show |-13.3%
Bumblebee | $204/show |-10.6%

Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.

The Mule | $223/show |1.9%
Bohemian Rhapsody | $381/show |43.2%
Wreck-It Ralph 2 | $224/show |-6.7%

DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.

Vice | $235/show |25.8%
Second Act | $195/show |36.2%

7 Replies

  • Reply #1


    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Jan 10, 2019, 11:31am PST
  • Reply #2


    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif?
    Jan 10, 2019, 11:54am PST
  • Reply #3

    Appreciate your work, Phil.

    @the_hersh · The Hersh
    Jan 10, 2019, 1:32pm PST
  • Reply #4

    @phils_phun_phlicks now that I know the report has more to it, why is BR "getting dicey"?

    Everything else I get, but I'm struggling with BR - is it that even though it's picking up a bunch of TC and showings, the areas aren't the strongest?

    @penny · Not Penny's Boat
    Jan 10, 2019, 2:07pm PST
  • Reply #5

    Phil can (and I trust will) correct me if I'm wrong but in this case I think the BR expansion in TC and showings isn't enough to offset its FML price.

    @the_hersh · The Hersh
    Jan 10, 2019, 2:15pm PST
  • Reply #6

    Yeah. Increasing your $/show by more than 40% while gaining a lot of showtimes is hard. Just like increasing your PTA while increasing theaters is hard.

    @chocoplex · Chocoplex
    Jan 10, 2019, 4:06pm PST
  • Reply #7

    So all new releases are quite close to what they need to make.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Jan 11, 2019, 4:26am PST
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