Weekly Comps with The Waco Kid and Nux

@waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
Jan 9, 2019, 6:36pm PST

Welcome back to the Weekly Comps with @waco_kid and @nux. We hope to provide you all with some good movies to compare with the movies that are on the slate. This should help in deciding which movies to use in your cineplex.


Now onto the Week 1 newcomers and the Week 2 holdovers.


Newcomers


The Upside


Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date


Book Club | 13,582,231 | 2,781 | 4,884 | 68,566,296 | 05/18/2018
The Intern | 17,728,313 | 3,305 | 5,364 | 75,764,672 | 09/25/2015
Why Him? | 11,002,986 | 2,917 | 3,772 | 60,323,786 | 12/23/2016


Keys to Comps: Genre. Now the dramedy is a tough cookie to crack. So you have to balance both the comedy and dramatic moments. The typical mindset would be to comp to a Kevin Hart movie, but found that to be folly here. With the three comps here, they all opened between 2700 and 3300 theaters with a wide range of PTAs. One thing to note is that with the Why Him comp is that it opened over Christmas and this is for the 3 Day, hence the low PTA. Currently on Box Office Mojo The Upside is slated for 3080 theaters.The Upside will most likely land with a PTA lower than Book Club due to the theater increase.


A Dog's Way Home


Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date


A Dog's Purpose | 18,222,810 | 3,059 | 5,957 | 64,508,620 | 01/27/2017
Dolphin Tale 2 | 15,873,397 | 3,656 | 4,342 | 42,024,533 | 09/12/2014


Keys to Comps: Lovable animals. A Dog's Way Home is technically a sequel to our first comp A Dog's Purpose and will open around the same time as its predecessor. Dolphin Tale 2 is also a sequel to another animal film. Both opened north of $15M and with a TC of 3090, expect A Dog's Way Home to perform between these two films. You can also expect a baked in sequel effect.


Holdovers


The Escape Room


Movie | BO | Theaters | BO% Change | TC Change | PTA


Underworld: Blood Wars | 6,206,099 | 3,070 | -54.7% | Null | 2,022
The Bye Bye Man | 3,430,655 | 2,220 | -74.6% | Null | 1,545
The Forest | 5,977,741 | 2,509, | -53.1% | +2.37% | 2,383
Happy Death Day | 9,363,415 | 3,298 | -64.0% | +4.73% | 2,839



Keys to Comps: Genre. Horror genre in its second week is always poised to drop 50%, so that should be the ceiling this week. The Escape Room opened to more theaters than Bye Bye Man and The Forest, but less than Underworld and Happy Death Day. Expect the PTA this week to fall between The Forest and Happy Death Day.


Now here's Nux with the Nux Distance report

9 Replies

  • Reply #1

    And now for the Nuxdistance portion of the analysis. The idea of my report is to compare movies currently on the slate with previous movies using something called Mahalabonis Distance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahalanobis_distance). Generally speaking, the idea behind this analysis is "if a movie acted like another one in the past, it's likely to act like that movie in the future". This is called "transaction analysis" in my business. I am not drawing any lines for genre, rating, anything. The formula uses weekend box office drop %, PTA drop %, and theater count drop %.


    AQUAMAN
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Dr. Seuss' The Grinch | -40.6% | -41.0%
    Wonder Woman | -38.3% | -39.6%
    Home | -39.2% | -42.7%
    The Croods | -33.2% | -36.4%
    The Jungle Book | -45.3% | -43.9%
    Epic | -39.6% | -47.0%
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | -39.9% | -45.0%
    Zootopia | -30.2% | -35.3%
    Get Out | -31.6% | -35.2%
    Gone Girl | -34.0% | -36.9%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $18.47M | -37.6% | $68,659/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $18.46M | -40.4% | $68,606/Bux


    These are pretty good comps for Aquaman. Wonder Woman seems apt, doesn't it. Mid 18s sound like a decent guess for Aquaman.



    ON THE BASIS OF SEX
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Battle of the Sexes | -49.9% | -24.6%
    Top Five | -7.06% | 1.370%
    About Time | -34.1% | -29.7%
    Bears | -55.9% | -54.2%
    Queen of Katwe | -35.7% | -34.7%
    Logan Lucky | 6.004% | 3.975%
    A Walk in the Woods | -41.2% | -40.7%
    Forever My Girl | -35.9% | -35.8%
    Super Troopers 2 | -49.6% | -49.8%
    Leap! | -49.3% | -49.5%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $18.59M | -35.3% | $137,688/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.1M | -31.3% | $8,182/Bux


    Honestly, none of these comps are very good. This one is up to you to figure out. For what it's worth, the average of the PTA and BO drop numbers gives OTBOS a 72k value.



    MARY POPPINS RETURNS
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Spider-Man: Into The Spiderverse | -22.2% | -30.2%
    The Hitman's Bodyguard | -53.7% | -54.4%
    The Mule | -35.0% | -25.1%
    Murder on the Orient Express | -49.4% | -48.6%
    American Hustle | -34.0% | -33.7%
    Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip | -44.8% | -52.7%
    The Age of Adaline | -38.1% | -46.2%
    Daddy's Home 2 | -40.7% | -42.7%
    The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | -43.1% | -46.0%
    Kung Fu Panda 3 | -29.3% | -36.6%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $9.16M | -38.9% | $69,393/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $9.31M | -41.2% | $70,553/Bux


    No more Greatest Showman comps showing up. This one is pick you narrative, but I'm closer to Murder on the Orient Express as a comp rather than Spidey.



    SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDERVERSE
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | -18.7% | -33.2%
    Instant Family | -21.1% | -34.1%
    Interstellar | -49.9% | -50.5%
    Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day | -34.6% | -46.2%
    We're the Millers | -39.4% | -39.4%
    Bohemian Rhapsody | -44.3% | -42.8%
    Hacksaw Ridge | -43.4% | -39.4%
    Annabelle: Creation | -40.3% | -46.6%
    Heaven is for Real | -38.3% | -41.4%
    Mr. Peabody & Sherman | -36.3% | -43.4%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $7.96M | -36.2% | $62,669/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $7.67M | -41.5% | $60,424/Bux


    What ever are these comps? I don't buy them. I'm all about the top two moreso than the bottom 8. I like Spidey this week, but I might be biased.



    BUMBLEBEE
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Kung Fu Panda 3 | -29.3% | -36.6%
    The Age of Adaline | -38.1% | -46.2%
    Daddy's Home 2 | -40.7% | -42.7%
    American Hustle | -34.0% | -33.7%
    The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | -43.1% | -46.0%
    Sisters | -41.4% | -43.6%
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | -39.9% | -45.0%
    Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip | -44.8% | -52.7%
    Lee Daniels' The Butler | -43.5% | -43.5%
    The Giver | -29.1% | -34.8%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $7.4M | -37.9% | $64,889/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $7.64M | -42.1% | $67,045/Bux


    Kung Fu Panda 3 has been a top comp for two weeks running. Roll with that.



    THE MULE
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Interstellar | -49.9% | -50.5%
    We're the Millers | -39.4% | -39.4%
    Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day | -34.6% | -46.2%
    Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | -18.7% | -33.2%
    Annabelle: Creation | -40.3% | -46.6%
    Bohemian Rhapsody | -44.3% | -42.8%
    Big Hero 6 | -54.6% | -57.2%
    Planes | -42.8% | -46.8%
    Hacksaw Ridge | -43.4% | -39.4%
    The Wolf of Wall Street | -17.0% | -22.5%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $4.95M | -38.7% | $52,145/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $5.22M | -42.6% | $54,959/Bux


    These are interesting comps. I'm not really sure about this, but it seems to suggest The Mule is not great value this week.

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Jan 9, 2019, 6:38pm PST
  • Reply #2

    VICE
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Tag | -24.1% | -28.7%
    Epic | -22.5% | -28.5%
    Jersey Boys | -26.1% | -33.1%
    Do You Believe? | -25.4% | -33.0%
    A Dog's Purpose | -27.3% | -30.8%
    Spy | -24.9% | -28.1%
    Free Birds | -22.3% | -27.0%
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi | -27.6% | -30.5%
    The Gift | -28.4% | -34.2%
    This is the End | -26.2% | -34.5%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $3.79M | -25.4% | $63,242/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $3.97M | -30.8% | $66,113/Bux


    I like This is the End as the best comp. Vice is due for a really solid hold, but that probably won't get it to BP levels.



    BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    The Revenant | -4.82% | -13.9%
    Darkest Hour | -26.5% | -18.1%
    Inside Out | -8.95% | -15.3%
    The Grand Budapest Hotel | -17.6% | -32.6%
    American Hustle | -15.4% | -28.8%
    Black Panther | 12.31% | -3.97%
    We're the Millers | -11.7% | -32.4%
    Jurassic World | -1.78% | -23.5%
    The Post | 1.729% | -14.1%
    Home | 0.782% | -33.7%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $2.43M | -7.62% | $43,408/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.87M | -21.2% | $33,310/Bux


    Yeah they priced out BR this week. Maybe the BP pricing penalty doesn't exist anymore, but the back-to-back BP plus Best Drama Golden Globes penalty sure does!



    IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Nocturnal Animals | -54.9% | -55.4%
    The Book Thief | -49.3% | -46.0%
    Danny Collins | -30.8% | -39.4%
    Eye in the Sky | -30.8% | -26.8%
    Brooklyn | -42.3% | -38.1%
    The Theory of Everything | -48.7% | -47.2%
    Eighth Grade | -44.3% | -44.3%
    The Shape of Water | 12.99% | 17.64%
    The Old Man & the Gun | -36.4% | -17.4%
    Phantom Thread | -19.3% | -8.15%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $3.82M | -36.8% | $69,488/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.22M | -34.0% | $22,102/Bux


    Another expander that doesn't quite make sense with the model. I think the PTA drop of Brooklyn or Eighth Grade makes the most sense. Nocturnal Animals and the Book Theif are significantly closer than the other comps and using those comps, you don't get close to the bar.



    SECOND ACT
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Top Five | -29.8% | -41.1%
    The Age of Adaline | -38.1% | -46.2%
    Daddy's Home 2 | -40.7% | -42.7%
    Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip | -44.8% | -52.7%
    The Hitman's Bodyguard | -53.7% | -54.4%
    Murder on the Orient Express | -49.4% | -48.6%
    Logan Lucky | -48.0% | -62.1%
    The Mule | -35.0% | -25.1%
    Sisters | -41.4% | -43.6%
    Exodus: Gods and Kings | -24.4% | -43.1%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $2.41M | -40.4% | $58,851/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $2.57M | -45.9% | $62,653/Bux


    I think J-Lo's run is over. SA might provide decent value, but I'm done trusting it for BP this week.



    RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them | -27.4% | -53.2%
    Wonder | -30.5% | -26.7%
    Dunkirk | -44.4% | -57.4%
    The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 | -15.7% | -41.6%
    Star Trek Beyond | -39.4% | -62.3%
    Girls Trip | -49.0% | -64.4%
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 | -26.4% | -40.3%
    Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | -33.9% | -54.8%
    The Maze Runner | -12.8% | -45.5%
    Home | 3.411% | -16.7%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $2.58M | -28.2% | $66,070/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $2.48M | -46.9% | $63,598/Bux


    Watch how many theaters Ralph loses to see if he will challenge for BP.

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Jan 9, 2019, 6:39pm PST
  • Reply #3

    Here is my model's normalized values. To get these values, I normalized the values with the highest value equal to the bonus bar that I set. This week its 75k. Every value in the table below is based on the Nuxdistance % of that bonus bar as it compares to the highest value movie. BOLD denotes my BP.


    Movie | Value (PTA) | Value (BO Drop)


    Aquaman | 70.6k | 70.5k
    On the Basis of Sex | 75k | 75k
    Mary Poppins Returns | 68.6k | 70.5k
    Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse | 64.4k | 62.1k
    Bumblebee | 66.7k | 68.9k
    The Mule | 53.6k | 56.5k
    Vice | 65k | 68k
    Bohemian Rhapsody | 44.6k | 34.3k
    If Beale Street Could Talk | 71.5k | 22.7k
    Second Act | 60.5k | 64.4k
    Ralph Breaks The Internet | 67.9k | 65.4k


    I may update the model to handle expanders better, because this doesn't quite pass the sniff test for me. If we don't count OTBOS, the model likes Aquaman the most.

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Jan 9, 2019, 6:40pm PST
  • Reply #4

    Any thoughts on Replicas?

    @neeksneaks · AMCuL8r
    Jan 10, 2019, 11:43am PST
  • Reply #5

    No post TC update this week as I'll be traveling. Good luck this week!

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Jan 10, 2019, 3:25pm PST
  • Reply #6

    I'm not really high on it this week. Entertainment Studios has a pretty inconsistent track record with releases. This seems like a worse Flatliners.

    @waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
    Jan 10, 2019, 7:37pm PST
  • Reply #7

    I think the extreme idiosyncrasies of the calendar over these last few weeks might be messing with your formulas (formulæ? lol) more than usual. Just from the dailies and TC changes this week, for example, it's hard to think that Spidey won't straight-up outgross Poppins this weekend...

    @cerebro · Seattle CJ ®
    Jan 10, 2019, 10:21pm PSTEdited
  • Reply #8

    @cerebro I think the extreme idiosyncrasies of the calendar over these last few weeks might be messing with your formulas (formulæ? lol) more than usual. Just from the dailies and TC changes this week, for example, it's hard to think that Spidey won't straight-up outgross Poppins this weekend...


    Yeah. It has to a degree. This stuff will happen, but it does happen every year so there's data for it. FWIW the model has spidey outcrossing poppins now.

    @nux · Nux (KotRT)
    Jan 11, 2019, 5:13am PST
  • Reply #9

    Excellent work as always @waco_kid @nux. One small correction is that $A Dog's Way Home isn't technically a sequel to $A Dog's Purpose. The sequel, A Dog's Journey, comes out in August. But all three films are based on books and adapted screenplays by W. Bruce Cameron. For box office purposes and your FML lineup, it may not matter much, but I would expect the preview-to-weekend multiplier to be slightly higher than if it were a sequel. Thanks for your hard work on these weekly posts.

    @austin · Austin Buyers Club
    Jan 11, 2019, 5:22am PST
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