Bonus Bar and Contenders - Awards - Week 6 - 2018

@guyett · Guyett
Jan 8, 2019, 10:15am PSTEdited

Hey everyone, Guyett back with the Week 6 Bonus Bar.


Bonus Bar is set at $75k



AQUAMAN | $20.18m (-34.93%) | Aquaman retains its PLF's so expect another strong hold. Last weekend saw Aquaman drop -41% off of a holidays inflated weekend so as long as it keeps volume it should have a considerably better hold.



A DOGS WAY HOME | $15.53m (New Release) | If ADWH behaves like A Dog's Purpose then you need to anchor with this 4x.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=adogspurpose.htm



THE UPSIDE | $14.10m (New Release) | There is a lot of upside to this film (groan). Sales look promising so far and with both Kevin Hart and Bryan Cranston, that being said this is a STX release and they have more often than not disappointed (most recently Second Act's opening weekend). An Upside BP may see our first Blank play in a while (this time a double blank play):



ESCAPE ROOM | $10.28m (-43.66%) | Horror typically has a pretty steep drop in its second week due to how front loaded the opening weekend can be. With a Thursday multiplier of under 8x you would expect Escape Room to have a Week 2 drop in the -50's%. Keep an eye on the dailies here.



ON THE BASIS OF SEX | $10.13m (+529.09%) | With an expected theatre count of 2000 for this RBG biopic you need to see a PTA drop of -64.77% to hit the bar, which is asking an awful lot.



MARY POPPINS RETURNS | $9.90m (-37.58%) | MPR has consistently disappointed in its run, if you feel that it will improve on its hold from last week with a likely TC cut more power to you. This is a very risky but ultimately incredibly rewarding play if MPR decides to turn up.



SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDERVERSE | $9.53m (-27.44%) | Expect a minor awards bump this weekend after winning Best Animated Film at the Golden Globes. Priced for one of the many 7x plays this weekend if this hits you will swing up the placings.



BUMBLEBEE | $8.55m (-35.24%) | See Aquaman but bake in a likely TC cut.



THE MULE | $7.13m (-21.79%) | The Mule has held exceptionally well but is unlikely to see another expansion.



VICE | $4.50m (-21.53%) | Christian Bale's Best Actor win, and subsequent controversial shoutout for @devil should see a nice bump. Vice is certainly in play here.



REPLICAS | $4.35m (New Release) | Well this film looks awful but it's bar is very very low. Entertainment Studios releasing adds an extra element of chaos here.



BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY | $4.20m (+77.35%) | After two bonus wins the Best Drama Film requires an incredible Globes bump and a sizeable expansion to remain relevant. Given Fox's speed of providing theatre count information last week Phil's Fandango Report is vital information.




IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK | $4.13m (+123.04%) | BOM have Beale Street in 600+ theatres this weekend, which requires a PTA increase to reach this bar.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4473&p=.htm
No thanks.




SECOND ACT | $3.08m (-35.34%) | J-Lo has had strong holds and been threatening winning bonus, this bar is more than achievable if it keeps hold of a most of its volume. However a relatively low PTA could spell the end of Jenny.




WRECK IT RALPH 2 | $2.93m (-37.41%) | Expect some competition from the doggos here and a worse hold than the recent Disney/Pixar Thanksgiving releases which enjoyed the MLK 4 day bump:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=pixar1117.htm
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=disney1116.htm

17 Replies

  • Reply #1

    You almost have no choice but to play blanks if you go all in on the Doggos...unless you're liking JLo to hold well.

    @the_hersh · The Hersh
    Jan 8, 2019, 10:40am PST
  • Reply #2

    That's a decently high bar, unless you're banking on a new release ...

    @mem · Half of 55 is not 32.5
    Jan 8, 2019, 10:55am PST
  • Reply #3

    @mem That's a decently high bar, unless you're banking on a new release ...



    I think everyone is, but I'm pretty sure the majority of people have different ones

    @iggy · Iggman
    Jan 8, 2019, 10:59am PST
  • Reply #4

    giphy.gif

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Jan 8, 2019, 11:14am PST
  • Reply #5

    giphy.gif


    Yes actually, caught some kind of cold. Perhaps a spoonful of something might help

    @guyett · Guyett
    Jan 8, 2019, 11:19am PST
  • Reply #6

    @guyett


    That sounds really nasty, what you've got there.


    I think 7x Spoonfuls might be warranted.....


    giphy.gif

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Jan 8, 2019, 11:27am PST
  • Reply #7

    I pretty much agree with your findings. I do think 75k is pretty steep for any of the holdovers though.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Jan 8, 2019, 4:57pm PST
  • Reply #8
    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Jan 8, 2019, 7:04pm PST
  • Reply #9

    MLK 4 bump? That's next weekend?

    @lars · La Forza del Destino (IOU)
    Jan 9, 2019, 5:57am PST
  • Reply #10

    Booger Sugar



    giphy.gif

    @william_fn_wallace · Extra Butter Fingers (R)
    Jan 9, 2019, 6:03am PSTEdited
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