Pre-Pricing Predictions - Awards Week 6

@lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
Jan 6, 2019, 11:20am PST

Happy new year FML! Apologies for not posting Pre-Pricing Predictions last week; I was out of the country on vacation. I'm starting off the new year predicting a $70K bar:

Film / Price / Gross / % up/down from last week/LRF

  • Aquaman / $251 / $17.6M / -42.8%
  • A Dog's Way Home / $220 / $15.4M / +18.5% from LRF of $13M
  • The Upside / $201 / $14.1M / +17.3% from LRF of $12M
  • Escape Room / $143 / $10M / -44.4%
  • Mary Poppins Returns / $130 / $9.1M / -42.4%
  • Into the Spider-Verse / $126 / $8.8M / -32.2%
  • On the Basis of Sex / $115 / $8.1M / +381.7%
  • Bumblebee / $105 / $7.4M / -42.6%
  • The Mule / $80 / $5.6M / -37.8%
  • Vice / $54 / $3.8M / -34.8%
  • If Beale Street Could Talk / $50 / $3.5M / +89.3%
  • Second Act / $45 / $3.2M / -35.7%
  • Replicas / $43 / $3M / -14% from LRF of $3.5M
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet / $42 / $2.9M / -37.4%
  • Green Book / $31 / $2.2M / +20.6%

Couple of thoughts:

  • Now that schools are back in, I'm expecting the box office to start looking like normal once again instead of some of the weirder dailies/weekend patterns we've been seeing over the last few weeks. AQM seems like it will start performing more like a traditional superhero film with drops in the 40-50% range from here on out. Pricing it at $251 makes it likely to be a decent anchor but a stretch as a BP contender
  • A Dog's Way Home...I didn't think it was possible for a trailer to make literally an entire film irrelevant but here we are. There's obviously a market for dog films as proven by A Dog's Purpose, but canine films have had a very wide range of performances in FML history. Proceed with caution. Pricing likely to err on the side of protecting against an overperformance, but this one could easily do sub-$10M
  • The Upside is also an interesting one. I think there's a decent chance this outgrosses ADWH straight up. Kevin Hart has proven to be a somewhat bankable commodity, Bryan Cranston and Nicole Kidman also provide some decent starpower, and the trailers have been decent enough. I suppose this and ADWH sort of target similar family-friendly markets but they feel different enough to both have space. I could see this pretty easily performing like Instant Family did a few months ago ($14M), but probably dependent on the volume it gets as well as reviews not being terrible
  • MPR - can it finally start performing like the TGS 2019 that some once hoped it might be? Probably not. I think after being nothing but a disappointment since its release, pricing will start to treat MPR more like a normal film that failed to light up the market. I'm expecting some dare-you pricing next week, with MPR, Spidey, and ER all priced within a similar window.
  • I think Escape Room could be an interesting one to watch - Week 2 horror lends itself to an ugly drop but this is also a relatively uncompetitive market so it could surprise. Winchester managed a 44% drop last year in its second week so if WOM for ER isn't completely terrible, that could be an achievable bar. That said, the crazy frontloading of ER means there's a very real chance this plummets next week
  • Now that schools are back in session, kids movies will start to take a bit of a hit, I'd imagine, meaning Spidey, Bumblebee, MPR, and Ralph could suffer a little.
  • On the Basis of Sex is getting 2,000 theaters next week. This looks relatively similar to Selma back in 2014 which expanded to 2,179 theaters on January 9th. Selma had healthier PTA's in its opening weeks (30K vs. 20K for OTBOS) and landed at an $11.3M OW. Though WOM and PTA has been pretty strong, I'm expecting OTBOS to come in softer than Selma given that Selma had a strong push from the AA audience, so pricing it for a little over $8M feels reasonable
  • Replicas - the movie I literally had no idea existed until last week. Feels like we've got another Marwen on our hands; should definitely be priced below its LRF if it wants a chance to contend.
  • Beale Street had a very strong weekend with almost $2M. Not sure what the exact expansion looks like next week but I believe it's moving from top 75 markets to top 150 markets so a healthy increase should be expected.
  • Currently I have Green Book making it as the last spot on the slate - that's dependent on it winning some awards at the Golden Globes tonight and getting a similar expansion to what Lady Bird got last year (+90 TC). If Green Book comes away empty-handed tonight, I think that last spot goes to whoever comes away most successfully from the Globes tonight - most likely Bohemian Rhapsody, with an outside chance from ASTAR depending on the level of expansion it gets

That's all I've got - anything stand out as crazy over/underpriced?

6 Replies

  • Reply #1

    I think you're crazy overestimating Escape Room. Winchester starred old people and also opened on Superbowl weekend, making its OW smaller. I'd price Escape Room mid to high 50s drop.

    @plexy · Plexy △
    Jan 6, 2019, 1:57pm PST
  • Reply #2

    Hmm that's fair, forgot about Super Bowl. I do think being the only horror option in the market, keeping all its volume, and none of the competition really targeting its teen/young adult market will help soften the blow next week - but agree that its drop is more likely to start with a 5 than a 4

    Would you price it below Poppins and Spidey for next week?

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Jan 6, 2019, 2:23pm PST
  • Reply #3

    With your current model, it's tough without shifting Spidey up. But maybe ER is an 8x play option. Or maybe the bar is somehow more like 60k? Not sure the best remedy.

    @plexy · Plexy △
    Jan 6, 2019, 7:41pm PST
  • Reply #4

    I would debate Green Book over Bohemian Rhapsody, because a number of people have probably just been introduced to this today and may receive a larger expansion, but who knows

    @iggy · Iggman
    Jan 6, 2019, 8:44pm PST
  • Reply #5

    Based on last night's results, I would personally keep GB and BR on the slate and probably drop Replicas or Ralph - no idea what kind of expansion to price them for though...

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Jan 7, 2019, 7:30am PST
  • Reply #6

    I feel like a 70k bar is too high. Idk, I think it will be lower.

    @time_is_illmatic · My friends, you bow to no one
    Jan 7, 2019, 9:17am PST
Add Reply