BSA Awards Week 1: I Must Break You From Screening Creed!

@bswhite · BSwhite: Into The FMLverse!
Dec 5, 2018, 1:43pm PSTEdited

Good Wednesday all, BS here, with your kickoff to Awards Season BSA! First, a recap of the 2018 Fall Season. For the Fall Season the BSA went 11 for 13 (84.61%). The 2 misses were Venom, and last week's The Possession Of Hannah Grace, although at least with that miss, I knew it was a goner, and issued the abandon ship call before lock time. So, a solid season overall, and now we maneuver into the tricky waters that swirl throughout Awards Season!


2018 YTD Record: 46 for 54 (85.18%)


Lifetime Record: 146 for 169 (86.39%)


Alright, let's get Awards Season started, and hopefully the beginning of another long hot streak! With most of the FML slate being holdovers, this week's BSA will naturally tackle one of them. So, for Awards Week 1, the BSA advises against...


CREED 2
Creed 2 blasted out of the gates over the 5-day Thanksgiving stretch, bringing in $56 mil over that timeframe. However, it hasn't been holding up as well as the original, so this week's BSA will advise why your NEED FOR CREED MUST BE BROKEN!
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THE RETURN OF DAILY TRUTHING!
Those of you who have been around FML for a while will remember that I use to write a post titled: Inside The Daily Numbers: Home Of The Daily Truthers! In that post, I would go into detail the daily numbers for each movie on that particular week's FML slate. Well, for this week's BSA, the Daily Truthing is back in print for the Main Chat to view!
Daily Numbers for Creed 2:
Monday 12/03: $1,099,606 (47.8% $$ Drop compared to the previous Monday 11/26 & 50% Per theater Average drop)
Tuesday 12/04: $1,789,976 (37.9% Drop versus last Tuesday 11/27 & 40% PTA drop)


Those numbers are O.K., but nothing to write home about. Additionally, if you compare them to many of the other movies and how their dailies stacked up, then it starts to look pretty weak!
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FRONTLOADED
As hinted at in my opening salvo, Creed 2 got off to a fantastic start, but has proven to be fairly frontloaded. So far, in 2 full weeks of release, 2/3 of its total gross so far of $83,864,914 was made in those 1st 5 days of release. It's also not holding up when compared to the 1st Creed.
2nd weekend drop for Creed: 49.4%
2nd weekend drop for Creed 2: 53.2%


If you want to perhaps project out where the 3rd weekend might go:
3rd weekend drop for Creed: 32.5%
3rd weekend drop for Creed 2: ???%
I would reason that the drop will definitely be greater than 32.5%, and probably end up closer to 40%.
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WORST OF THE ANCHOR OPTIONS
In my opinion, Creed 2 is the WORST of the anchor options available this week. FML has it priced at $212 FML BUX. You could conceivably screen it as a 4x anchor. That's probably not a smart move, as you're probably looking at about $40-42 mil combined from those 4 screens. The higher priced animated movies offer better value, and there are some potentially dangerous 7x or 8x plays priced below it, which could blow it out of the water. Anchoring with Creed 2 is a resounding NYET from me this week!
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BOTTOM LINE
We all want to start off a new FML season with a hot start. I don't see Creed 2 giving that to you. It's the weakest of the anchor plays, and even in a week where the PC total will be low, it's not worth $848 FML BUX to screen Creed 2 as a 4x anchor. As for being a possible filler play? Again, because of how it's priced, it's a tough fit, even as a filler. I'd be looking to bob and weave my way to better FML value elsewhere! As always, good luck!

16 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Currently, over 40% of FML is trying to steal their way to the week 1 PC!


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    @bswhite · BSwhite: Into The FMLverse!
    Dec 5, 2018, 1:44pm PSTEdited
  • Reply #2

    46 for 54*

    @the_hersh · The Hersh
    Dec 5, 2018, 1:47pm PST
  • Reply #3

    yawning.jpg

    @dylan · Biff
    Dec 5, 2018, 1:50pm PST
  • Reply #4

    As hinted at in my opening salvo, Creed 2 got off to a fantastic start, but has proven to be fairly frontloaded. So far, in 2 full weeks of release, 2/3 of its total gross so far of $83,864,914 was made in those 1st 5 days of release.


    The first one did 63% of its 14-day total in the first 5-days. I'm not sure 66% vs 63% shows "fairly frontloaded-ness."


    Points for using "salvo," though.

    @dylan · Biff
    Dec 5, 2018, 1:58pm PST
  • Reply #5

    So it's tracking slightly worse than its predecessor. As a sequel, that makes sense.

    @wacokid · The Waco Kidplex
    Dec 5, 2018, 4:33pm PST
  • Reply #6

    The danger here is that I see one obvious lineup where Creed 2 gets in the PC, albeit only one screen.

    @user4m87pj · Jonathan Michaels' Offbeat Shenanigans
    Dec 5, 2018, 11:39pm PST
  • Reply #7

    @user4m87pj The danger here is that I see one obvious lineup where Creed 2 gets in the PC, albeit only one screen.



    Same, but it's really a toss-up between that and another line-up that may have more value

    @iggy · Iggman
    Dec 6, 2018, 6:11am PST
  • Reply #8

    @user4m87pj The danger here is that I see one obvious lineup where Creed 2 gets in the PC, albeit only one screen.



    Same, but it's really a toss-up between that and another line-up that may have more value

    @iggy · Iggman
    Dec 6, 2018, 6:11am PST
  • Reply #9

    If you like the 1/1/1/5 Cineplex, then by all means, take a shot at it.


    In my opinion, 3B will be better than 1A + 1B + 1C....


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    @bswhite · BSwhite: Into The FMLverse!
    Dec 6, 2018, 8:08am PSTEdited
  • Reply #10

    If you like the 1/1/1/5 Cineplex, then by all means, take a shot at it.


    In my opinion, 3B will be better than 1A + 1B + 1C....


    giphy.gif


    My top Creed-plex is actually a 2/1/1/4 at the moment, just a hair ahead of your 1/1/1/5, but I've got both of them at roughly $2 million below my (and most likely everyone else's) PC favorite. Semi-props on picking one of the top three as the BSA, but this is likely to be a foregone conclusion sooner rather than later.

    @bdc · Billion Dollar Cineplex
    Dec 6, 2018, 9:21am PST
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