Vincent Pricing Q&A: I Dare You!

@vincent_pricing · Vincent Pricing
Nov 7, 2018, 6:36am PST

@phils_phun_phlicks asked about successes and failures with "I dare you" pricing.


We use "I dare you" pricing when our projection for a movie is significantly lower than the rest of the industry, and we stand by our low prediction. Sometimes the hype has gone too far, and we anticipate the pro forecasts decreasing later in the week. Other times we try to entice FMLers to screen an unpopular movie.


Warner Animation Group provided us both a recent hit and a big miss with "I dare you" pricing. We successfully lowballed $Teen Titans GO! to the Movies in Week 9 this past Summer Season. The popular play underperformed even our low expectations, finishing the weekend as one of the five worst values.


But then we made the mistake of doubling down on Warner Bros. a couple of months later, totally whiffing on $Smallfoot in Week 4 of the Fall Season. It was a runaway Best Performer. We were fortunate that challenging filler picks kept the week interesting and yielded a small number of perfect cineplexes.


$I Can Only Imagine in Week 3 of the 2018 Spring Season may have been our biggest miss in the history of "I dare you" pricing. We were frustrated by a streak of overpriced Christian films, underestimated the theater count, and checked the ticket sales trends too early in the day before the late Monday uptick from group sales.


On the other end of the spectrum, $My Little Pony: The Movie in Week 6 of the 2017 Fall Season was probably our most successful dare. Despite watching many Brony videos, we projected the ponies would underperform. Over 2000 FMLers max-played it on seven screens and were disappointed when it barely cracked the top five values.


What secrets of the FML Pricing Team have you always wanted to know? Comment below and heart your favorite questions to help us pick our next Q&A topic.

9 Replies

  • Reply #1

    I think I asked a similar question in the first thread, but do you price all movies for an equal shot on Monday, or do you already have an idea of what will end up BP/WP when pricing is created?

    @lurker · Still Showing Blade Runner 2049
    Nov 7, 2018, 6:54am PST
  • Reply #2

    MLP was good, but what about Teen Titans Go! To The Movies? That may have ruined more cineplexes than MLP

    @iggy · Iggman
    Nov 7, 2018, 7:19am PST
  • Reply #3

    Do you ever hope for a lot of PCs when pricing envisioning "easy" weeks where a great number of players can score a PC and stay competitive?

    @the_hersh · The Hersh
    Nov 7, 2018, 7:39am PST
  • Reply #4

    @iggy you're probably right. Over 2000 people max-played $Teen Titans GO! to the Movies on six screens, and its extreme underperformance set people back further than playing $My Little Pony: The Movie. Maybe MLP felt like the bigger dare win because the Pricing Team was more confident in the Teen Titans pricing than the MLP pricing. Lowballing MLP felt riskier at the time.

    @vincent_pricing · Vincent Pricing
    Nov 7, 2018, 7:43am PST
  • Reply #5

    This is fascinating! So now we know that I Dare You pricing IS indeed a real thing.


    Iggy, I'm not trying to speak for Vincent, but my guess is that they don't see success as getting people to fall back in standings, but on creating separation. MLP created more separation in standings that Teen Titans? I think there's something more to it that I can't quite put my finger on

    @ari · Ari's Amphitheater of Moving Pictures
    Nov 7, 2018, 12:00pm PST
  • Reply #6

    Well, you may want to add this week to this post

    @iggy · Iggman
    Nov 9, 2018, 8:46am PST
  • Reply #7

    Yes, potentially a perfect week for this post. Alas, probably not to the degree I think it is.

    @jeremy · Circle of Life (IOU)
    Nov 9, 2018, 9:38am PST
  • Reply #8

    Lets not get ahead of ourselves...

    @lars · La Forza del Destino
    Nov 9, 2018, 9:54pm PST
  • Reply #9

    Fhkfv

    @user6j9k6y · 1787997's Cineplex
    Nov 10, 2018, 11:13am PST
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