Coupe's Weekend Box Office Predictions | Oct 5-7

@coupe · The Coupe De' Villes (IOU)
Oct 3, 2018, 8:27am PDTEdited

Hey! I'm Coupe and here I am (once again) giving you my Weekend Box Office Predictions that are MEANT to (hopefully?) help you.


This week we have a modest four new releases joining the ever growing slate of movies, those movies are Action flick ‘Venom', Musical Drama ‘A Star is Born', Drama ‘The Hate U Give', and ‘Free Solo'.


MY PREDICTIONS


‘Venom' - $58.5M
Poor reviews will definitely hurt this movie a lot. I see it with a great thursday/friday number but falling off in saturday/sunday and failing to break the $60M threshold.


‘A Star is Born' - $50.1M | COUPE'S BP
Great reviews, social media buzz, a substantial marketing campaign all combine to grant my pick for BP, ‘A Star is Born' with both a high ceiling and a high floor.


‘Smallfoot' - $13.1M (-43%)


‘Night School' - $12.5M (-54%)
Coming off an opening weekend where it overperformed, plus the fact it faces big competition from both ‘Venom' & ‘A Star is Born', I expect a fairly hefty cut in gross.


‘The House with a Clock in its Walls' - $6.3M (-50%)


‘A Simple Favor' - $3.4M (-47%)


‘The Nun' - $2.7M (-49%)
I expect ‘The Nun' to receive a substantial amount of overflow from ‘Venom', but it also faces heavy competition from it, so a 50%+ fall is not out of the question here.


‘Crazy Rich Asians' - $2.3M (-42%)


‘Hell Fest' - $2M (-61%)
Has some fresh, direct competition with ‘Venom'. Not to mention, it has horendoes reviews and word of mouth...expect a massive drop.


‘The Predator' - $1.5M (-61%)


‘White Boy Rick' - $1M (-56%) | COUPE DE VILLAIN


‘Peppermint' - $741K (-58%)
A bad PTA will warrant massive theater count drop, not to mention it faces heavy competition from ‘Venom'.


‘The Hate U Give' - $607K
Kind of an interesting situation we got here. As some of you may know, it is based off a very new and very popular YA novel so there's definitely an audience for this film.


‘Free Solo' - $530K


‘The Meg' - $423K (-59%)
See ‘Peppermint'.


Let me know your thoughts down below!


Next Weekend Forecast (Oct 12-14):
‘First Man' - $22M
‘Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween' - $19.6M
‘Bad Times at the El Royale' - $17.1M


Follow me on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/coupedevilles


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https://patreon.com/coupe


Last Week's Column:
https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/553461


Numbers in Spilled Milk's ‘Moovee Picker':
http://mooveepicker.azurewebsites.net/home/picks?bo=58500000,50100000,13100000,12500000,6300000,3400000,2700000,2300000,2000000,1500000,1000000,741000,607000,530000,423000&wl=1,0,0,0,0,0


Follow Spilled Milk on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/spilledmilkcom

5 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Estimates last updated Friday 10/5 @ 11:18 AM EST


    'Venom' UP ($55.9M to $58.5M)


    'A Star is Born' UP ($44.1M to $50.1M)


    'Hell Fest' UP ($1.6M to $2M)


    'White Boy Rick' DOWN ($1.2M to $1M)

    @coupe · The Coupe De' Villes (IOU)
    Oct 3, 2018, 8:28am PDTEdited
  • Reply #2

    Horendoes are pretty good but not nearly as good as Doritos.

    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif?
    Oct 3, 2018, 12:20pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    I am not sure about your Hell Fest. I saw it on a Monday and the theater was crowded which surprised me. I have it at 2.2 mil.

    @botbotb · Botbotb
    Oct 3, 2018, 12:57pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    I am not sure about your Hell Fest. I saw it on a Monday and the theater was crowded which surprised me. I have it at 2.2 mil.


    Worth noting that Hellfest was on moviepass on Monday. Check out its increase from Monday to Tuesday compared to others on the slate.

    @guyett · Guyett
    Oct 3, 2018, 2:08pm PDT
  • Reply #5

    Obligatory 'Just updated my Estimates' BUMP.

    @coupe · The Coupe De' Villes (IOU)
    Oct 5, 2018, 8:19am PDT
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