Coupe's Weekend Box Office Predictions | Sep 28-30

@coupe · The Coupe De' Villes (IOU)
Sep 26, 2018, 7:31am PDTEdited

Hey! I'm Coupe and here I am (once again) giving you my Weekend Box Office Predictions that are MEANT to (hopefully?) help you.


This week we have a modest four new releases joining the ever growing slate of movies, those movies are Comedy ‘Night School', Animated Adventure ‘Smallfoot', Horror flick ‘Hell Fest', and Drama ‘Little Women'.


MY PREDICTIONS


‘Smallfoot' - $27.3M | COUPE'S BP
My projected #1 movie, ‘Smallfoot' is the first major animated kids movie to come out since July. Yes, Warner Bros Animation doesn't have the best track record with the underperformance of titles such as ‘Storks', ‘LEGO Ninjago', and ‘Teen Titans'. But this one, I've got a feeling about. It has an amazing theater count of 4,000+, a Star-studded cast, catchy songs, and an aggressive ad campaign. The floor is high, the ceiling is even higher. A 2x play seems like the best option.


‘Night School' - $25.8M
According to BOM, ‘Night School' is supposedly set to hold a mere 2,900 theater count...which seems low to say the least. If that TC is true, I don't see ‘Night School breaking the $25M threshold too easily. I'd need to see a really good Thursday number first.


‘The House with a Clock in its Walls' - $13.3M (-50%)
I'd have it holding better, if it weren't for my predicted ‘Smallfoot' success.


‘A Simple Favor' - $6.7M (-34%)


‘The Nun' - $5.8M (-41%)


‘Hell Fest' - $5M
This one really worries me. Not the best marketing campaign from what I see, and the fact that it's R-rated is a also a red flag.


‘Crazy Rich Asians' - $4.4M (-30%)


‘The Predator' - $3.9M (-57%)
It's not going to repeat last week's hefty drop, but it's not going to bounce back either.


‘White Boy Rick' - $2.7M (-43%)


‘Peppermint' - $2.4M (-35%)


‘Searching' - $1.6M (-26%)


‘Fahrenheit 11/9' - $1.5M (-48%)
Decent word of mouth will keep ‘11/9' from spiraling out of relevancy but I think after last week, it's out of your cineplex relevancy.


‘The Meg' - $1.3M (-43%)


‘Little Women' - $1.1M | COUPE DE VILLAIN


‘Life Itself' - $1M (-51%)


Let me know your thoughts down below!


Next Weekend Forecast (Oct 5-7):
‘Venom' - $68.1M
‘A Star is Born' - $53.7M


Follow me on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/coupedevilles


Support my Patreon:
https://patreon.com/coupe


Last Week's Column:
https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/551788


Numbers in Spilled Milk's ‘Moovee Picker':
http://mooveepicker.azurewebsites.net/Home/Picks?bo=25800000,27300000,13300000,6700000,5000000,5800000,4400000,3900000,2700000,2400000,1100000,1500000,1200000,1300000,1000000&wl=1,0,0,0,0,0,0


Follow Spilled Milk on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/spilledmilkcom

18 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Estimates last updated Friday 9/28 @ 11:19 AM EST


    'Smallfoot' DOWN ($35.8M to $27.3M)


    'Night School' UP ($22.1M to $25.8M)


    'The Predator' DOWN ($4.2M to $3.9M)


    and, yes...
    'Life Itself' DOWN ($1.8M to $1M)

    @coupe · The Coupe De' Villes (IOU)
    Sep 26, 2018, 7:31am PDTEdited
  • Reply #2

    These estimates are insane.
    Why would Life Itself drop 16%, it was rejected, there is no precedent for such a drop. It's PTA can certainly get much worse.
    And the top 2 movies could probably switch around your estimates.

    @time_is_illmatic · My friends, you bow to no one
    Sep 26, 2018, 7:43am PDT
  • Reply #3

    Night School would need a PTA of $11,000+ for it to reach $35M...it's only in 2,900 theaters. Does that really seem feasible to you?

    @coupe · The Coupe De' Villes (IOU)
    Sep 26, 2018, 7:45am PDT
  • Reply #4

    That Life Itself number seems really off to me, like really, really off. It has zero rewatchability, and is essentially a movie based on a TV show, since I'm pretty sure almost everyone that saw the movie, loves This Is Us, so it may play like one with a mid 50s drop, or it may out like another Amazon movie that flopped and go to a mid 70s drop, neither one lost many theaters, and Gringo already had a really low PTA of 1132, and it went down to 283.

    @iggy · Iggman
    Sep 26, 2018, 7:48am PDT
  • Reply #5

    Night School would need a PTA of $11,000+ for it to reach $35M...it's only in 2,900 theaters. Does that really seem feasible to you?


    Have you looked at Kevin Hart movies, or Girls Trip.

    @time_is_illmatic · My friends, you bow to no one
    Sep 26, 2018, 7:48am PDTEdited
  • Reply #6

    @coupe Night School would need a PTA of $11,000+ for it to reach $35M...it's only in 2,900 theaters. Does that really seem feasible to you?



    I don't believe this will happen, but it's possible, and even feasible, but I wouldn't bet on it. And it doesn't help that basically all the Kevin Hart movies that aren't stand-up, where he is more than a supporting character, are basically all on holiday weekends and are not sequels, are named Top Five, but looking at some comps, they can easily hit 11k or above and still have an RT score of less than 30%

    @iggy · Iggman
    Sep 26, 2018, 7:53am PDT
  • Reply #7

    I realize now that that sentence makes almost no sense, but it's still incredibly early for me, so I guess it can be forgiven

    @iggy · Iggman
    Sep 26, 2018, 7:56am PDT
  • Reply #8

    Regarding Life Itself, believe me... that PTA elevator goes below B...


    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=actionpoint.htm
    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=morgan.htm


    LI appears to be splitting screens this week so... temper expectations greatly.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Sep 26, 2018, 8:12am PDTEdited
  • Reply #9

    @coupe Wow, where to start? I guess I'll begin with the $22.1 mil prediction you have for Night School. Dangerously low!


    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=girltrip.htm


    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=thinklikeaman2.htm


    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=bestman2.htm


    Those are 3 examples. I would also throw in pretty much every Tyler Perry movie as well.


    Common theme? All of those movies opened in well less than 2900 theaters, some close to 2000 theaters. The PTA's for those movies? In excess of $10K.


    The Kevin Hart / Tiffany Haddish pairing is perfect! It will draw in the AA demo, which has been starved for a hit in some time. The PG-13 rating makes it family friendly as a fun comedy to go to, which helps with crossover/broadens the audience. The "back to school" theme is always a winner, in my opinion too. Even if reviews are mediocre, this isn't high brow theater we're talking about. This is going to the movies for 2 hrs of some hopefully good laughs, which with all the crap going on lately, I think many of us need!


    I will bet you whatever stakes you want that Night School opens to AT LEAST A $10K PTA this weekend! That's how far off I think you are with this prediction.

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Sep 26, 2018, 8:14am PDTEdited
  • Reply #10

    And, it's already been jumped on, but a 16% drop for Life Itself?!?


    giphy.gif


    If it had a 32% drop this weekend, that would be a damn miracle unto itself!


    I will mail you the keys to my house if Life Itself has a sub 20% drop this weekend.

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Sep 26, 2018, 8:25am PDT
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